100 NL, TT, shove river for value?

[SABR42]

Villain is 20/4 and very passive.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $96.15
BB: $36.30
UTG: $62.80
Hero (MP): $134.35
CO: $117.60
BTN: $89.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $5.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($12.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>, BTN calls $8.00

Turn: ($28.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $18.00</font>, BTN calls $18.00

River: ($64.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Villain has $58 left. Hero shoves for value.

I think against guys like this it's good to just bet/bet/bet until they show aggression. My turn plan was bet/fold. Once he called me the river didn't really change anything (unless he had 65 or something). Profitable shove?

[HAL PHIPA]

This is so dependant. It seems like this guy looks you up with worse some but not a lot. Hes seems semi tight passive and I think you see JJ and QQ a lot when he calls a shove. Also, 75 and 65 are in his range. I think you can check/fold this river or safely go for a smaller thin value bet. Shove is a spew imo but its close.

[CalledDownLight]

I bet $40 here for value, I think it gets looked up significantly more than a shove. C/f seems like a bad line here imo and c/c doesnt look much better so it all about how much you think he'll call with a 9.

[crunny]

I agree with cdl, how much do u think he will call with a 9? I don't think he calls a shove so i'm going to say bet 1/3 pot instead.

[Roger Mainfield]

I'm not sure what hand your opponent could have to look you up? Maybe 89,9T,A9s and 66,77,88? Depends on how much he calls, but agains't regular villians they probably fold all of those to a river push(at least I would). I bet you see jj,qq,44,33,99 here a fair bit at the end.

Woops this is 6-max!!

K ya then I don't mind it, you will get looked up lighter.

[Ctrl.Dominate]

This is more of a bluff than for value.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet $40 here for value, I think it gets looked up significantly more than a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I think if he'll call $40 with a 9 he'll call $58 like 90% of the time.

I hate betting stuff like 1/3 pot on the river, becuase I'd never bluff for that amount either.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what hand your opponent could have to look you up? Maybe 89,9T,A9s and 66,77,88? Depends on how much he calls, but agains't regular villians they probably fold all of those to a river push(at least I would). I bet you see jj,qq,44,33,99 here a fair bit at the end.

Woops this is 6-max!!

K ya then I don't mind it, you will get looked up lighter.

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually this is still FR, the table just got shorter.

I'd expect better hands to raise me at SOME point before the river no? It's possible he has JJ and I push the worst hand into him, but I still think I win more than 50% of the time when called. It's a raggedy board, and if he called two bets with 9-x already, why won't he call a third?

[Ctrl.Dominate]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what hand your opponent could have to look you up? Maybe 89,9T,A9s and 66,77,88? Depends on how much he calls, but agains't regular villians they probably fold all of those to a river push(at least I would). I bet you see jj,qq,44,33,99 here a fair bit at the end.

Woops this is 6-max!!

K ya then I don't mind it, you will get looked up lighter.

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually this is still FR, the table just got shorter.

I'd expect better hands to raise me at SOME point before the river no? It's possible he has JJ and I push the worst hand into him, but I still think I win more than 50% of the time when called. It's a raggedy board, and if he called two bets with 9-x already, why won't he call a third?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if he calls you're toast, if he is as passive as you say he is you're going to be making money by getting him to fold those JJ types of hands. I'm not sure he has those types hands enough for this to be +EV.

[Roger Mainfield]

Well that's the thing, you say he is very passive. Because I would expect a villian to raise most of the hands you beat at some point. So that's how I thought about his range, hands he would call with but not super monsters (a passive's requirment for raising) with which he would have raised.

And it's also a problem, you don't have a solid idea of your opponents hand, and being passive you know he wouldn't raise you and allow you to get away cheap. Really this is very dependant on whether he is a calling station. If he calls too much and doesn't raise much then this is okay, however if he is fairly tight postflop, then you are toast by the river.

If I had A9s (as villain), I probably would have raised flop, then folded to a raise. However if I got to the river like he did, I would definatly need a read to call an all-in, any decent opponent mucks a 9 here.

Another note, if I am villian the only hand I am showing up with on the river is 56, if played like this, every single other hand in my range gets folded or raised before this point. If we assume that the villian has a similar range and isn't a station, then he would have folded the same hands, but gotten here without raising for the rest of them, all of which have you beat. (those hands that he calls with at least)

In Conc, I would need a read that not only is he passive but a station as well. The more I think about the hand I really don't feel that it's for value at all, unless you have a deeper read on villian (Went to showdown%?). I actually prefer check/calling this river, and I would probably fold to a push by villian.