Dicussion on betting missed draws

[wpr101]

Let's you call out of position with some speculative hand. You flop a decent straight draw or flush draw and check call a 1/2 pot bet on the flop (assume you don't CR). Turn you check as well (again, assume you cannot bluff turn). Villian checks behind, and both turn and river missed you.

What texture flops are you going to try to steal? Would you be more prone to steal versus a nit/TAG/LAG? Or would you almost never bet in this situation at all because it may be obvious you missed your draw? I know I may have not defined the problem so well, feel free to add other variables.

[Teh1337zor]

I almost never bet my missed draws with this line b/c its so transparent, it also depends on frequency of cbets from villain etc.

[obiedman]

i don't have a lot of time right now, so i'll have to be quick, but I feel like this is one of the most obvious steal situations in the game. in fact i'll often valuebet pretty thin in this situation because you'll get looked up pretty lightly by a lot of villains with all sorts of hand types. it even works in position as well... bet flop, check behind on the turn and bet the river. you'd be surprised how light you'll get looked up.

[Get_better_Baris]

play it same way u would tp

[berserk]

[ QUOTE ]
play it same way u would tp

[/ QUOTE ]

[obiedman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
play it same way u would tp

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

why? if i have tp i'm leading the river because i expect to get called by a ton of hands. why would i want to make a bluff when i expect to get called a lot? just give up, check fold and move on to the next hand. if you want to combat for pot, come up with something more creative than checking the flop and turn

[jfish]

lead the flopppppppppppp. it gives you so many more options in spots like this.

[obiedman]

btw if you don't believe that people will want to look you up lightly on the river in this situation, refer to this thread plz: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post10800770

[john kane]

i will generally check fold the flop.

say your 1 in 5 to hit your draw on the flop. if your opponent is the type of guy who will make weedy flop bets such as 1/2, he'll likely do the same again on the turn. you are then faced with a turn bet getting 3:1 on your money on a 5:1 hit. now you feel borderline, but you kinda want to call. but your only getting 3:1 becuase of your bad flop call, you shouldn't even be in the hand imo.

either check raise big, repping set or two pair, or check fold. i don't like leading that much unless the board is abstract, say K 8 2. on something like 7 8s 10s and you have 2sKs in BB i feel no real point to leading, as his hand range will often call.

i just think check-calling flop, your often never getting the implied odds and due to positional problem it makes it harder to make the opponent fold as you can't see if he checks turn before you act, so you have less chance of winning the pot when you miss.

[FBP]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
play it same way u would tp

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

why? if i have tp i'm leading the river because i expect to get called by a ton of hands. why would i want to make a bluff when i expect to get called a lot? just give up, check fold and move on to the next hand. if you want to combat for pot, come up with something more creative than checking the flop and turn

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong, you can play top pair and busted draw the same way and be profitable on all of your bets wether value bet or bluffs. And I think this kind of spot illustrate pretty well a spot where this is likely to be true.
The flaw in your logic is not thinking percentage, so you need to remember, although he might call with "lots of hands" this does NOT mean you will get called a lot (percentage wise). For exemple imagine if his check behind range is like King hi or worse and middle pair.

To OP: Basically, i'll bet here most busted draws because his range is very weak and you'll get easily the required amount of fold.