Venetian DS2 early KK hand

gatorch0mp · #1 07-06-2007, 01:57 PM

Venetian $540 deepstack MTT

Blinds 100-200. It's early in the tourney. We're both sitting on about 10K in chips. Villain has me barely covered. There has been maybe one limped pot to this point... and typical progression thus far has been, someone raises... 1 or 2 callers... someone bets, everyone folds. I have villain read as the best player at the table. He's been friendly at the table, diffusing crap spewed by other players toward the dealer and has been very observant of every hand played. He has shown AK once when taking down the blinds. No other hands revealed. I haven't been playing many pots, and the only hand I have showndown thus far has been TPTK. I don't think I have been giving a weak vibe... but I'm not sure how he has me read. We've both played about the same number of pots (few). He's 40-something and staring at me with a Grateful Dead ballcap. I'm early 30's and staring back with my ipod and college shirt.

Folds to me in late position and I raise K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to 700, which has been a typical raise at this level.

Folds to BB who calls the raise.

Flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB leads out for 1500. I call.

Turn is 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets 2000.

Ugh... nice bet. I am starting to regret not raising the flop. Is he firing a second barrel with nothing... or does he already have me destroyed?

Fold and live to take chips off the other players? Call here and re-evaluate on the River? Make a stand right here and raise?

Should have raised the flop?

Comments please!
-G

Dave D · #2 07-06-2007, 02:09 PM

Yeah def raise that flop.

You have to be scared of like exactly 89, or a set to think you're in trouble on this turn. I mean a set or JT or something is possible I guess, but unlikely.

At least there's no flush draws out there now.

I guess if you're that scared I would just call the turn and re-evaluate river.

If he checks to you on the river (which I have a feeling he will) I value bet like 2000. I still think you have the best hand here, and unless he's super leveling with a set here, you should act like it.

SonofDjugashvili · #3 07-06-2007, 02:30 PM

He bet pot on flop, and less than half on turn. He probably has AJ, thinks he's best on flop, and isn't so sure on turn. Unless he has precisely J10 and now doesn't want to lose you. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

adanthar · #4 07-06-2007, 02:43 PM

his flop + turn bet combo = you have the nuts

incidentally, his flop + turn bet combo = he's probably not as good as you think he is

renodoc · #5 07-06-2007, 03:05 PM

i agree, he has AJ about 80% of the time here. If he has JT then gg and YGHN.

EverettKings · #6 07-06-2007, 04:06 PM

I cant fathom folding this. Flop call is very standard given these stacks, as a raise pretty much declares exactly what you have.

Only question is whether to call or push now. You still have 6k left to bet and he wont put you on KK if you smooth call again, so I like a call and getting it in on most rivers.

gatorch0mp · #7 07-06-2007, 04:46 PM

Thanks for the comments.

I probably overthunk the situation... UGH.

The way the table was going during these first couple hours, when I called the flop bet I felt he must have thought that I liked my hand (there were no big draws out there and that 1500 was the biggest bet thrown out on the table thus far that wasn't an all-in move). When he led out again on the turn, I felt that he at least somewhat liked his hand as well.

The way the betting was going I put him on, 89 (unlikely), J10, AJ, 10-10, or QQ. With my tight play, I was also wondering if he might put my range on an overpair and think I may over-commit myself if he flopped a set... this is an unlikely scenario, but one I considered in those moments after his turn bet. Of course he could just as likely thought I had crap and his AJ was very good.

If I call, I'm pretty much going all the way if he pushes the river... which I felt he was likely to do (just a feeling though)

If I fold, I still have a very healthy stack to play with.

This was the biggest live MTT I've played... I was stoked to be there... and didn't want to see all my chips in the middle this early and him flip the nuts over (I know... horrible mindset)

By this time I pretty much psyched myself out. I folded, and he mucked face down.

We chatted during dinner break and he claimed to have had AK... uh... yeah... maybe...

I think next time I raise that flop bet...

Thanks again,
-G

renodoc · #8 07-06-2007, 05:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This was the biggest live MTT I've played... I was stoked to be there... and didn't want to see all my chips in the middle this early and him flip the nuts over (I know... horrible mindset)

[/ QUOTE ]

recognizing the problem is the first step towards solving it

gatorch0mp · #9 07-06-2007, 06:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
recognizing the problem is the first step towards solving it

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

It's kind of funny... a year and a half ago there's no way in hell I'd fold QQ+ in this spot... ever... Now I find myself having to unlearn some of the over-thinking and get back to that

Thanks again for the advice.
-G

Soulman · #10 07-06-2007, 08:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
recognizing the problem is the first step towards solving it

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

It's kind of funny... a year and a half ago there's no way in hell I'd fold QQ+ in this spot... ever... Now I find myself having to unlearn some of the over-thinking and get back to that

[/ QUOTE ]
It's pretty classic to go through a stage like this - where you see monsters everywhere, whereas before you didn't simply because you didn't think much at all. It's still a useful and necessary step, but please don't think you haven't learned anything [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]