Folding an overpair on a safe river.

[LuckyDevil]

Villain was 20/9 over about 50 hands. Hadn't seen anything odd out of him, seemed to play pretty straight forward.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $62.90
UTG+1: $117
CO: $116.85
Hero: $237.05
SB: $238.75
BB: $203.85

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $10</font>, SB calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($24, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $16</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($56, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($56, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $42</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $42 returned to SB.

Results:
Final pot: $56

Who hates this fold and why? What hand range do you put him on?

[KLJ]

are you kidding me? call with a fist pump

[LuckyDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
are you kidding me? call with a fist pump

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, what do you expect him to show you?

[AndyP]

why aren't we betting turn? As played, pretty easy call on the river I think.

[KLJ]

two pair.

hands that beat you (in order of likeliness):
JJ-QQ-77-88-99-56-JT-KK-AA-2x

hands that you beat:
flopped two pair, 9x, 8x, 7x, bluff, 66-33 (in decreasing likeliness depending on how much he sucks)

the point is most of his hand range that beats you makes NO sense if he's decent (JJ+/56/JT/2x) and most of his hand range that you beat makes a lot of sense (bluff/66-33/7x) if he sucks

[LuckyDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
why aren't we betting turn? As played, pretty easy call on the river I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

We aren't betting the turn cause i have 8 outs most likely if behind and it would really suck to have to dump it because he check raises me. Plus i really doubt he is calling with over cards here. The only drawing hands he could have here are 6 + a pair.

[LuckyDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
hands that you beat:
flopped two pair, 9x, 8x, 7x, bluff, 66-33 (in decreasing likeliness depending on how much he sucks)


[/ QUOTE ]

All those hand have SD value except "bluff", which is very broad, and i doubt villain ever just calls flop with nothing just to put a play on me later in the hand. He most likely check/calls with all of those other hands you listed me as ahead of. No sense value betting them. If he called with the flop with any of those hands its because he's putting me on over cards, except maybe 66, in which case he has an open ender. But after i check the turn he's gotta think there i a good chance that i have nothing. Why would he VB if he thinks i have nothing? Why would he bluff if his 66 beats my assumed nothing?

[KLJ]

you underestimate how many bad tags bet because you checked. also, hypothetically if he only bet with hands &gt;TT then it means him real easy to play against right? call it unintentional (or intentional) range merging.

[LuckyDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
you underestimate how many bad tags bet because you checked. also, hypothetically if he only bet with hands &gt;TT then it means him real easy to play against right? call it unintentional (or intentional) range merging.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you missed my read on him as a straight forward player (even though it was only over 50 hands). You keep changing my villain to either bad tag or thinking tricky tag.

Thanks for the replies though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[KLJ]

explain why he can't have 98 or 78? or why he'd c/c with a set or straight