PS 33 - AJs in SB raised on Bubble

[AnthonyV]

Button has been extremely solid. UTG is not good at all and should be exiting soon.

If you fold too, what's the smallest hand you push over with here? If you push, what's the worst hand you push with here?

A stop-n-go perhaps?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button (t4770)
Hero (t2290)
BB (t4890)
UTG (t1550)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t600</font>, Hero folds.

[therock]

With Villian being solid and UTG as you descirbe (bad, smallest stack), I would fold. I'd push AQ and push AJ if villian was laggy.

[Pudge714]

With 11 bb's loose short stack and a marginal hand I would fold this.
However in order to give you a range I would need to know what you mean by solid. Tight solid, or good bubble player solid.

[Elektrik]

I fold here. I'd probably push to a 400 chip raise, but with 600 chips he's getting pot odds to call. Also, if UTG is making some awful plays, I'll definitely want to let him bust before taking on the other stacks.

[DevinLake]

Considering this guy is solid, the other big stack is in the BB and he didn't push, I feel comfortable coming to two conclusions about his intentions.

1) He has made a raise with the intention of calling an overpush from you but folding if the BB pushes.

2) He has a monster and is inviting the BB to push over the top.

If it's 1) if fold, if it's 2) I fold.

So, I fold.

[AnthonyV]

[ QUOTE ]
With 11 bb's loose short stack and a marginal hand I would fold this. However in order to give you a range I would need to know what you mean by solid. Tight solid, or good bubble player solid.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tight solid. Hadn't entered a lot of pots. Not showed down trash, etc. Regular, multi-tabler, etc...

[flub]

4 Handed vs a button steal? AJs is a monster and I'd push easy. I'm mostly a ring game player but is sneaking into 3rd place really that important? You'll need to win a heck of a lot more chips to get 1st place and it's unlikely you'll do that folding hands this powerful. The guy you're waiting to bust could easily double up unless he's super tight, and you might get a string of junk hands.

Lets look at the hands you Dominate that he would play: AJo,AT,A9,A8,A7,A6,A5,A4,A3,A2,KJ,QJ,JT,J9,J8. (15 hands)

Now lets look at the hands that Dominate you: AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ (6 hands, pocket pairs being half as likely)

He will also play pocket pairs which are about even and KQ hands which you are a bit ahead but want him to fold.

Your hand looks like a monster to me and you need to win hands to win.

-f

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]

Tight solid. Hadn't entered a lot of pots. Not showed down trash, etc. Regular, multi-tabler, etc...

[/ QUOTE ]

So what in his range are you beating?

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
4 Handed vs a button steal? AJs is a monster and I'd push easy. I'm mostly a ring game player but is sneaking into 3rd place really that important? You'll need to win a heck of a lot more chips to get 1st place and it's unlikely you'll do that folding hands this powerful. The guy you're waiting to bust could easily double up unless he's super tight, and you might get a string of junk hands.

Lets look at the hands you Dominate that he would play: AJo,AT,A9,A8,A7,A6,A5,A4,A3,A2,KJ,QJ,JT,J9,J8. (15 hands)

Now lets look at the hands that Dominate you: AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ (6 hands, pocket pairs being half as likely)

He will also play pocket pairs which are about even and KQ hands which you are a bit ahead but want him to fold.

Your hand looks like a monster to me and you need to win hands to win.

-f

[/ QUOTE ]

Read up on ICM, and understand that pot odds and chipEV are not anywhere near as important as $EV on the bubble.

[AnthonyV]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Tight solid. Hadn't entered a lot of pots. Not showed down trash, etc. Regular, multi-tabler, etc...

[/ QUOTE ]

So what in his range are you beating?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably AT-A7ish. So yeah, not a ton, hence the fold, esp given other shorter stack.