50NL - AA facing all in on flop

Willem · #1 06-04-2007, 01:31 PM

Villain is a 19/14/2.5 and is a multi-tabling reg who just moved up from 25nl.

A few orbits before this hand I 3-bet villain's buttonraise from the blinds, he called my c-bet and bet the turn there, so either he had a hand there, or he isn't giving my 3-bets respect. I'm not too sure this matters for this hand at all btw.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($50.25)
BB ($49.50)
UTG ($68.90)
MP ($57.80)
CO ($51.50)
Button ($108.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $2, 2 folds, Button calls $2, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, UTG folds, Button calls $6.

Flop: ($18.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $14, Button raises to $100.2, Hero ...?

So, what do you do here? It seems weird to me that he would have a set because he wouldn't have had set-odds pf, but who knows.

KEW · #2 06-04-2007, 01:39 PM

Call...Villain would make this same play w/QQ ...Sets and 2 pair I think this villain waits until turn to raise

muddydog · #3 06-04-2007, 01:45 PM

I think given the stack sizes you have to call here, I hate that the jack hit the flop though. I believe you'll see qq and kk here enough to make this +ev. If not oh well he made a mistake preflop even if he were to stack you every time his call was -ev.

Upgrade_U · #4 06-04-2007, 02:36 PM

call for sure, that's an outrageous steal and if he hit the set then that just sucks ..

bozzer · #5 06-04-2007, 02:46 PM

JJ and TT are really worrying me here, but he might play QQ+,AK like this too, so it's a really close spot. I think you'd make money by calling.

21SuicideKing21 · #6 06-04-2007, 02:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Call...Villain would make this same play w/QQ ...Sets and 2 pair I think this villain waits until turn to raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Also IMO could also be a very overplayed KQ. But yeah I feel if he put you on AA, then he would get this on the turn but he could very easily be putting you on AK and he thinks he's good here.

tarheeljks · #7 06-04-2007, 02:55 PM

people make bad pf calls all the time w/pp's, so it wouldn't be strange for him to have JJ/TT here. however, i have a hard time believing that he would just call 2 pf raises w/JJ/TT. beyond that i don't understand why he would push ai on this flop w/a set. i only see him playing AA/KK this passively pf so i'm calling.

jonyy6788 · #8 06-04-2007, 03:00 PM

overpair, 3-bet pot, Hero snap callzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

hummusx · #9 06-04-2007, 03:21 PM

Pot has $12 in it. Villain has to call $6. He only needs to win $45 total to make this even money if he has JJ. So if he can win more than $33 from you, which he will if you have AA and he has JJ, it should be +EV. Marginally though, but I don't think he's losing money.

relativity_x · #10 06-04-2007, 03:32 PM

You've already got ~22 bucks in the pot. You should put the rest in. If he had TT,JJ pre, I think he would raise after the 2 dollar bet pre. I can't see him calling a 2 dollar bet with JT either. A set of sixes are possible, but his cold call is probably QQ,KK, or KQs. I think this is a must call. What happened? Did he have KQs and hit a 9 on the river??