PS 3/6: 88 and I folded a set

[Esso]

Like I said, I am folding a set here (on the turn no less) so you may want to avert your eyes.

UTG is loose (40/10/1.28) but is not as bad post flop as you might expect.

MP2 (16/6/1.0 over 250) is pretty tight and not very aggressive.

SB is more or less unknown (less than 20 hands). But I have already seen him open limp 32s from MP so he seems loose and not good. In one hand he had 99 and flopped an overpair and never raised (pre or post) so is probably pretty passive.


PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero folds...

So... how bad is this?

[James.]

oh, no.

[Aces McGee]

I'm trying to separate your original turn action from what happened immediately after it, and I think that betting the turn is best, even when the SB check-folds instead of check-raises.

Once you check and it goes bet-raise after that...

Man, I don't know. SB has to have a flush, right? You're in a lot of trouble if MP has KK or QQ, and only slightly less if he has KQ. Since MP2 is passive and he capped the flop, it seems like he has more than AA here. But I am terrible at assigning probabilities to certain hand ranges.

I am nervous about saying this, but I don't think this fold is that bad.

-McGee

[ProfessorBen]

This is expert. MP2s range is AA/KK/QQ/KQ at this point, weighted more toward AA, KK and QQ.(40/10s tend to limp KQ along, what is your sample size?)
SB almost certainly has a straight or a flush at this point.
The only time that you're still ahead is when MP2 has AA and SB is playing some kind of spewtard KT, QT, or T8.

Otherwise, your K and Q outs are not safe(and likely taken by MP2), this turn gets 3 bet a ton(when you're drawing to a single out in a 18BB pot, and you're dominated by their combined ranges. You have 4 clean outs, and maybe 1-2 more tops for K and Q. Getting 14:2 is major, but I'm not thinking twice after folding this.

I think I normally bet the turn, because showing that much strength might allow me to get to the river cheapest and charge the heart if I'm still ahead.

nh sir.

[sharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
oh, no.

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