QQ on super ugly flop multiway. 600nl

[jj12]

Villain is 25/11/2.5. He overslowplays made hands (taking lines like check min raising big streets etc.). Don't have other reads.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $470.65
BB: $884.00
UTG: $634.40
MP: $404.25
CO: $1,979.45
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $597.00</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $6.00, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27.00</font>, SB folds, BB calls $21.00, UTG calls $21.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($84) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $45.00</font>

Should I raise here? What do you do if an ugly turn comes and it gets checked through then he bets river?

Lets say you call. Turn is an offsuit 4 and he bets 120 into 170. Do you raise him up here or do you call again?

[TheGrasshopper]

Your hypothetical turn action depends greatly on who villian is.

Personally I like calling the flop, keeping the pot small and reevaluating after seeing what villian does on turn.

[jj12]

I gave you all the read I have. BB folds flop.

[jj12]

bump

[Big_Jim]

peel the flop

if BB just calls, you can pretty well count on having him beat

turn is a super obvious push/fold spot plz don't call

given your read, push

[jj12]

I peeled flop, BB folded. I raised UTG's bet to 400 on the turn. I don't feel great about it because I think he folds many worse hands and I get stacked by all better.

[Big_Jim]

You'll definitely get called by Tx/JJ/whatever here sometimes, since he might well rule out better hands, since you didn't raise the flop.

You'll get called by draws sometimes too, and sometimes he'll incorrectly fold a draw.

Besides, pot is getting big, and there are just so many bad cards that put you in terrible spots if you just call.

[jj12]

Jim, I don't think he has JJ ever. Sure, he could pay me off with something like AT. There is like 530 behind on the turn. I think he would fold his crap draws and maybe continue incorrectly with pair+draw. I most likely stack T9s. It is probably neutral ev to push, but it is hard to calculate the ev of calling, which I think has merits.

His range seems to be

Axc around 7 combos.
Other flush draws around 7 combos.
78s 2 combos
8Ts 2 combos
J9s 4 combos
77/88 6 combos (you have to discount those since he probably bets more on the flop).
T9s 3 combos
98s 3 combos
97s 3 combos
56s 4 combos
KTs 3 combos
QTs 3 combos
JTs 3 combos

From the above list I am crushed by 18 combos and I beat 32 combos. Even though we are a favorite against his betting range it doesn't mean that push is good. Also a lot of the combos that I beat have substantial equity on the turn (T9 has 30%), when I am beat I have very low equity.

[Big_Jim]

The EV calc is definitely a bit complicated. I might give it a try at some point.

What is your plan when he shoves various rivers?

Over half the deck is scare cards!

When a blank hits, you might get a cheap showdown, since he may opt for a c/r, but he might not, and he's probably going to give up on a good chunk of his bluffs

it's not even a pot sized raise to get the chips in, and our reverse implied odds are godawful if we see the river

It seems really obvious to me that calling here sucks, unless you think he bluffs way too much, or not nearly enough