JJ ugly turn desicion

[recallme]

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $100.50
UTG+1: $39
CO: $33.72
Button: $92.75
SB: $46.82
Hero: $107

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $4</font>, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $18</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($41, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $24</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($89, 2 players)

Villain is 31/11/1 WSD: 37 $SD: 51

I think shoving is spew, but is c/c better, he has very likely TT+ here?

[ofishstix]

the 9 changes nothing, id prolly crai here

[Nick Royale]

Raise more preflop, the simple rule of thumb says to 22 but since you're oop I's raise it to about 24.

I bet a bit more on the flop. Push turn.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
the 9 changes nothing, id prolly crai here

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not the time for a crai, he's not aggro and most importantly stack sizes won't allow it. Against an aggressive I could see check/calling here, against this player the option are to push or c/f imo (if it gets checked through you could push a blank river instead obv).

I lean towards pushing here because it might get fd+overs to pay off, while his passive stats indicates checking will probably give a draw a free card. He might also pay off with smaller PPs getting decent odds. Checking could make him more inclined to pay off on the river with a small PP, but the river could also be an overcard making him less inclined to call. I think the benefits of a push is greater.

[recallme]

How often does our Villain have a FD in a 3bettet pot?
I don`t think that`s not the range i should consider making my play.

[holdme]

i would just shove since an ace loves to call on that board because most of your opponents are drooling retards

[recallme]

A shove let him fold this A and perhaps he would shove if i check to him

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
How often does our Villain have a FD in a 3bettet pot?
I don`t think that`s not the range i should consider making my play.

[/ QUOTE ]
30% vpip usually calls re-raises with tons of suited crap. Also there's plenty suited broadways possible and some suited connectors. If you don't think he'll show up often with a fd here you're definately wrong imo.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
A shove let him fold this A and perhaps he would shove if i check to him

[/ QUOTE ]
What about his play/stats makes you believe he's aggressive enough to push a bare ace?

[traz]

I'm kind of baffled at all of the "push turn" responses. Really? What's folding, and what's calling?

We fold out MAYBE QQ. AA, KK, A9 all call. MAYBE TT calls, but I think that's pretty unlikely. AKc is somewhere in there, I'm not sure where.

I think a shove is pretty suicidal.