Long analysis post: An interesting hand against 2+2er BisopsFinger

[Fiksdal]

Here is a hand where I make comments and hand reading analysis at every option hero has in the hand. Doing this is awesome for improving the way you think about the game.

I made this post mostly for contriubting to the forum. But I 'd also like discussion of course. It's pretty long, but I think it's worth the read.


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $26.85
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $25.00</font>
UTG: $23.15
CO: $36.30
BTN: $23.45

<font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">This is from today. I wasn't the one playing this one, it was a friend of mine who I am sharing account with. He sendt it to me right now and wanted some thoughts, and I thought it was an interesting hand.

Villain is 2+2er BishopsFinger, solid TAG who is 4-tabling while the hand is taking place. 17/14/9.50 over a decent sample.

In this particular session hero has been pretty tight, like 15/12/3. But bishops probably has old stats on me with a big sample, and I'm gonna be something like 19/16/4.</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75

<font color="green">Here is the first spot, which I think hero kinda [censored] up. Villain is a positional player, and we are currently beating his CO range...

which should probably be like 22+, A9+, A7s+, KJ+, KTs+, QJ+, 89s+.

So we are playing the hand. But flat calling here leaves us without innitiative in the hand. For instance, even if villain has ATs here, he will be able to make us fold the best hand with his cbet on most flops. I think we should 3bet him here, for value and to gain innitiative in the pot. Also to avoid playing against him OOP, and for a great chance to take down the pot right here, even if he has something like 66. I think the optimal play here is to raise to $3.
</font>

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($2.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.00</font>,

<font color="green">Here is another interesting spot, and Hero chose to lead. That was not optimal IMO. If we had 77 here, a lead would be fine because people usually don't give donkbets all that much credit, and we would be wanting to build a big pot, to make sure we stack him the times he wants to go to the felt. If we had 77 we would not want to scare him with a CR.

In this case though, our hand isn't strong enough so that we are gonna get him to stack off for 100bbs the times we have him beat. I have a hard time seeing bishops stack off with JJ here. If we get 100bbs in here, bishops is most likely gonna be holding AA/KK/QQ/77/44 or AQ.

This is why I check this flop. I expect him to cbet really often when we do this, which is nice, because then we get that $2 out of him when he has AK, JJ or TJs.

When he bets we probably just flat call, because we don't wanna build a big pot with this hand OOP against him on this dry board. We are doing fine against the range he raised preflop with and cbets the flop bet. BUT, we are crushed by the range that gets it AI here or even calls a CR. I say we try and play a small pot with this hand.

Hero in the hand actually made a donkbet, which is pretty bad IMO. We don't wanna scare away all the hands we beat, and we are in a tough spot if raised.</font>


<font color="red">CO raises to $7.00</font>, Hero calls $5.00


<font color="green">OK, so Bishops raised our donkbet. What does this mean? Personally, I raise donkbets all of the time. They usually mean a medicore hand that wants to "see where it is at". Few people at 25NL donkbet sets/flopped monsters (although sometimes they should).

Is bishops capable of raising our donkbet with air here (AK for instance)? He is an aggressive player, so that is possible. Personally I do this a lot, and I have a feeling bishops could be the type to do that sometimes. I don't know for sure though. I think he definitley would take a stand with a lot of his pairs though. I'll try to give him a range after he raises our donkbet.

44, 77, QQ

KK, AA

AQ, KQ, QJ

88, 99, TT, JJ,

AK, Other whiffed stuff. (some portion of the time)


We might be doing OK against this range especially if it includes the whiffed stuff he gets stubborn with and raises.

However, if we push here, what does he call with? Probably not much. The sets obv, AA/KK too, and probably AQ. I'm pretty sure he folds the underpairs, and I'm pretty sure he'll get away from QJ. Maybe he'll fold KQ.

So the range that calls a push basically has us crushed, while he folds all the hands that we beat. That is a bad result for us, and we can not push here. The risk/reward ratio just sucks.

Thankfully, TAGs are usually predictable. If we call here, and check the turn, villain will check behind for pot control with JJ, QJ, 99, air, etc. So if we do that, he will let us know where we stand! If villain checks behind on a blank turn, we can put out a little value bet on a blank river, which he might pay off. If villain fires again on the turn we basically know we are beat, and can get away. Sounds like a good plan to me.</font>


<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($16.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $8.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $17.00</font>

<font color="green">As you can see, my friend did not consider theese things. Possibly he just saw the heart and decided to get it AI.

The king of hearts is a mixed card. We now don't beat KQ anymore, and it's gonna be hard to get any value from 88-JJ. However, we now have 9 sure outs to the nuts.

What is villains range once he fires again on the turn? I'd say it is pretty strong. As I said I think he would have checked behind with the underpairs and the weak queens, so I am now putting him on AA/KK/QQ/44/77. Making the sets the most likely once given the small size of his bet. Seems like he is trying to massage the pot slowly here, setting up a river shove which will be giving us good odds. Thus, there are no hands in his range we beat. We are gonna have to hit the flush to beat him. Do we have the pot odds?

The pot is $24 after he fires, and it costs us $8 to call. That's 3 to 1, and we need 4 to 1 to call. However, villain isn't folding to a push on the river when the backdoor flush hits, not after having so little left in such a big pot. And we have just concluded that his range consists mostly of sets. If we call this bet we have $9 left in our stack (ugh), so we can add that to what we will win.

Thus the pot contains $32 after he fires, and it costs us $8 to call. We now have exactly 4 to 1, and we can call and shove the river if we hit. Check if we whiff, hoping to show down (after all he could have fired again with JJ. Or he could have AQ too and check behind. It's a marginal sitaution though, it could also be folded.</font>

Here's the entire hand:

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $26.85
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $25.00</font>
UTG: $23.15
CO: $36.30
BTN: $23.45

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($2.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $7.00</font>, Hero calls $5.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($16.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $8.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $17.00</font>

Any thoughts are aprreciated, so are questions from new posters. And If you disagree with my analysis somewhere (some of it might certainly be debateable), then that is what I am looking for the most.

[TheRenaissance]

Good post, and I think most of your analysis is spot on. However I think you missed slightly with your hand range on the flop. Why would villain raise with QJ/KQ/AQ on such a dry flop? When his opponent is a tight nit? I think we can rule most of these hands out actually. IMO when he raises the flop his range is: set, overpair, hands weaker than TP/air. And if I was villain in this hand, my range would be weighted towards weak hands/air.

Once we get to the turn I agree with your range - it definitely tightens when he bets again.

[creamfillin]

3B PF if he is a positional aggressor, it would make this hand a hell of alot easier to play

[BishopsFinger]

oooh this will be fun - i only had 20 hands on the guy so take it like i was working against an unknown.

im sending a response to fik now and waiting to get FLLAAMMMEEEDDD

[BishopsFinger]

ok so here is the response i sent to fik - by running hot i mean a +15 buy in weekend so here i go:

ok perhaps this is unwise considering ill be playing you soon but [censored] it.

first i admire the flattery at the beginning of the post to ensure a response - definitely +ev on ego-mad 2+2 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

OK I had JJ here. Yes I know. A very non standard play for me – heres why….

Pre:

my pf range from the cutoff depends on the table - at an average table ill open with axs a10o any pp and suited connectors depending on stacks and how frisky im feeling - same thing for face cards kjs+. at a tight table ill raise hands as poor as q10s from the co as im trying to loosen up my range from there. also adjust for people in blinds obv.

In this hand im thinking - i get a caller oop so im thinking pps lower than mine or a10&lt; ax &lt; ak, some suited aces, occasionally kq type hands and maybe scs from opponents i have seen get out of line oop.

I run at 20/15 atm btw (~27 from button.)

Raising the donk:

if i havent seen an opponent donk into me before, im the pfr, its heads up and it is a SMALL donk (&gt;1/2 ps) then i will raise with almost any two if only to discover how to respond to them in the future and i find it to be +ev with the donk- fold line being a popular line from donkers.

with pot sized donks it depends on the opponent and board, on highly co-ordinated boards or boards likely to have filled my hand a Pot sized donk gets a lot more respect and against an opponent with non retarded stats who hasnt got out of line again it get a lot more respect. This was a v dry board and an opponent i only had 20ish hands on at the time ergo:

The Flop:

With JJ my standard here is to call and re-eval turn… but here i had been running hot as hell all day so was feeling rather invincible and raising felt guuuuuut (expect to see me doing this &lt;10% of the time and folding another 10%)

On such a dry board I would raise this with aq/kq/kk/aa about 75% of the time. I would however just call with a set about half the time as im begging for action.

Turn:

I have been called so im figuring im up against kq/aq a set (dont know if he would just shove this on the flop as its so dry) or very very very rarely 56 - essentially i am now DONE WITH THE HAND. but tonight I decided.....

-my range looks like kk+/aq/kq/set or maybe ak / medium pp trying to push over the donk - the k fills ak pushing over the donk and kq but making kk less likely. meaning if villain is holding anything but a set or exactly kq then he is now beating only a lower pp than the k and q and its unlikely i would bet an underpair having faced resistance with 2 overs on show.

-when checked to his range stands at aq ------- kq, 44, 77 (random crap and 65 are a miniscule part I guess as well as he is a relative unknown). the latter group (kq, 44, 77) arent getting away from this hand BUT if he is holding aq then my range kk+/aq/kq/44/77 crushes his and he is splitting at best thus I think he wont continue with the hand if I bet

as i believe he is folding aq now and with 16 in the pot he has to be holding aq a third of the time for a 1/2 pot sized bet to be profiitable - with 12 combos to a set, 9 to kq and 12 to the aq hes holding aq just over 1/3rd of the time maths wise so I went for the ½ psb.

This is a very unusual play and essentially what I was doing at the time was looking for a reason to bet/raise as I just felt like being agro – id say I did a pretty good job of justifying what was a terrible play.

Ben

Oh and how much do you charge for coaching? What format does it take and do you have AIM?

Thanks.

the random bits like my raising range from the CO etc are responses to questions included in fik's original post

also i never even considered the flush draw which appears to have been my downfall

[BishopsFinger]

or to cut it short - winners tilt flop raise - flawed maths turn bet.

[BishopsFinger]

bump

[kaz2107]

grunch
ur preflop cbet idea is too small. we r oop thus i make a bigger cbet. my normal cbet to 1 is 4 if im in position and 5 if im oop.

also i think ur CO range is a tad narrow altho that can b really debatable i guess. but a 2p2ers range from CO here should b much wider then the one u listed.

tha rest of tha ideas seemed pretty solid to me. i read it rather fast but i think ur thinkin on tha rest of tha hand is pretty good. nice post. i would like to see more of these from people. i think they r really good and will help tha person who posts them as well as the forum in general a ton.

[MrMysterious]

didn't bother reading it all, just basic reads.

personally i say 3 bet pf (obv)
if you just call pf, cc flop, lead any non king turn. this particular turn i think is another cc.

but as played i like the crai bcs you do fold out AK or KJ if he is raising donks as liberally as we think.