live 3/6, TT MP

mntndrew · #1 05-31-2007, 12:54 PM

Hero is dealt T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in MP at 8-handed game.

EP player limps, Hero raises, HJ, CO, BN, BB and limper call. HJ is a little erratic, CO is older but aggressive player, BN is ATC tourist type, BB is occasionally out of control aggressive.

Flop [11 SB]: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB, EP check, Hero bets, HJ raises, CO folds, BN, BB call, EP folds.

I debated calling and checking out the turn card but decided it was too much hand to do that on.

Hero 3-bets, HJ caps, BN, BB, Hero call.

Turn [13.5 BB]: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Worst card possible. BB, Hero check, HJ bets, BN folds, BB, Hero call.

River [16.5 BB]: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets, Hero raises...

Is the combination of the size of the pot and the erratic nature of the BB player enough for this attempt to try to fold out a J or maybe even Q high flush, while folding to a HJ 3-bet and calling (only) a BB 3-bet?

tyler_cracker · #2 05-31-2007, 01:15 PM

the parlay you need is that BB is betting a worse hand AND HJ has a better hand AND he will fold that hand getting 19:2 having called down to hit it. plus, you're planning on committing another bet if BB 3bets!

this is way too optimistic. i make a crying-ish call and probably fold if HJ raises and BB calls.

LrdNikon · #3 05-31-2007, 02:02 PM

This is ballsy, and I definitely couldn't do it.

It may be weak, but I'd probably fold. There's a few likely cards that can beat you, especially with BB waking up and leading out.

TheCount212 · #4 05-31-2007, 02:16 PM

Maybe I'm WT, but I think BB betting out is a bad, bad sign. If you're pouring more $ into this pot thinking you're going to bluff off someone it seems horribly misguided. At this point in the hand I don't think either villain is going anywhere.. if it was HU this might make more sense. But with two others one has to have either a flush or a straight, neither of which you can beat. And I don't see the holder of a flush folding here, whether it's a J or Q.
Yes, the pot is huge. But the turn and river destroyed your set.. unless of course you were already beat after the flop. Time to smell the coffee.

mntndrew · #5 05-31-2007, 02:22 PM

FWIW, I can beat a straight (I have a pathetic 5th nuts T high flush), and I think that HJ's range includes 99-77 and possibly 66, and that BB is bad enough that he could play KT-K6 like this.

TheCount212 · #6 05-31-2007, 02:25 PM

My mistake. I'd still fold.

jstill · #7 05-31-2007, 02:28 PM

bb would have to be a real special kind of ridiculous to bet a worse hand here into 2 players on the 4 flush river.... like the kind that cant even read his on hand on the board bad, not just cant read other players hands.

Just go for the overcall and lose to BB, fold to a raise behind obviously, the parlay BB is betting a worse hand or folds a better hand and the guy behind u has one of the two plausible better holdings he MITE fold is not worth the investment in my opinion despite the size of the pot.

mntndrew · #8 05-31-2007, 02:40 PM

Out of curiosity, what do people think is the worst hand BB will lead out here?

TheCount212 · #9 05-31-2007, 02:49 PM

QcJx, QcTx

Aces McGee · #10 05-31-2007, 03:10 PM

Cool hand.

I think we're behind the hijack almost never. About the only thing I can think of him reasonably holding that beats us is the Jc9x. I think an underset is far, far more likely.

I don't think you get the BB to lay down the Qc or Jc or to call with something KT often enough to make the risk worth it, even if you add in the small chance of being ahead of the BB and getting the hijack to fold the Jc.

-McGee