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#1
05-30-2007, 03:54 PM
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Mike Vick Prop (Bodog)
Will Michael Vick be with the Falcons at the start of the 2008 Regular Season?
Must be on the Roster for "Yes" to be winner. No Parlays. Max $100 Yes: -250 No: +170 I like the Yes bet here. It doesn't appear very likely that Vick gets cut or traded before the season begins. They already decided that Vick is their guy, as they had Schaub ready to take over and they moved him. It's true that there are questions about Vick fitting Petrino's system, but they knew that before they moved Schaub. I can't see them cutting him over the dogfighting, particularly since it doesn't seem like it'll earn him a Pacman-like suspension. Things would have to seriously escalate into much more serious charges to make it likely. I can't see them outright cutting Vick and turning the team over to Joey Harrington, D.J. Shockley, or Chris Redman. There are rumors that they're going after Trent Green, but it appears that Green has no interest in playing there. I checked with support and they verified that being on the suspended list (and off of the depth chart) counts as being on the roster. Vick has to be on the team at the start of the year 71.5% of the time for the bet to break even. There's a chance he's not (considering his cap hit isn't prohibitive if they do it after June 1), but I like the bet. Thoughts? 
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#3
05-30-2007, 05:48 PM
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Re: Mike Vick Prop (Bodog)
[ QUOTE ]
So if he's in prison but still technically on the roster the Yes bet pays? Because he's going to prison. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. However, the prop only requires him to be on the roster until the start of the season. The local prosecutor doesn't seem particularly keen on going forward with charges, so I'd be fairly surprised if it gets to the conviction stage. He seems to continue to find ways to drag his feet on the investigation. The feds are starting to involved, but that'll take some time to develop.
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#4
05-30-2007, 07:28 PM
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Re: Mike Vick Prop (Bodog)
The prop says 2008. That is a loooong time away.
Yesterday, I hit the prop, "How many games will the NFL suspend Michael Vick before the start of the 2007 Regular Season?" ZERO -150. The prop has already changed to the end of the 2007 season and the ZERO is -350. I was going to post it yesterday but I didn't have complete info so I didn't trust it enough to post it.
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#5
05-30-2007, 07:41 PM
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Re: Mike Vick Prop (Bodog)
I like the odds on a 5-8 game suspension. He is in some deep dog doo.
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#6
05-30-2007, 11:22 PM
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Re: Mike Vick Prop (Bodog)
[ QUOTE ]
I like the odds on a 5-8 game suspension. He is in some deep dog doo. [/ QUOTE ] Yep. I agree. I think he gets suspended at some point but the question remains when. Oddly, the movement of the line and the info in the press have moved in exactly the opposite direction. The chances of Vick getting charged before the season, and thus the chance of suspension, have gone up today. So, while the line has moved massively in my favor (approx 300 pts. 200pts + change from start to end of season), I like my bet much less than I did when I placed it yesterday and it seems about EV neutral now.
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#8
05-31-2007, 12:33 PM
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Re: Mike Vick Prop (Bodog)
[ QUOTE ]
I haven't followed this story. What did he do that would warrant an arrest/conviction? [/ QUOTE ] Owned dogs for the specific purpose of fighting them. Ran dog fights on property he owned. Gambled on dog fights at property he owned. Allowed others to gamble on dogfights at property he owned. Cruelty toward animals. Etc, etc, etc. These are all felonies.
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#10
05-31-2007, 03:43 PM
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Re: Mike Vick Prop (Bodog)
[ QUOTE ]
What an idiot [/ QUOTE ] No kidding. I just think that the Falcons have committed themselves here. While I agree that things like cutting Schaub are sort of "sunk costs" and they should move forward with what is best for the team at the moment (regardless of what happened in the past), sports teams tend not to think this way. Think about baseball, each time a young prospect that is ready is held back due to the fact that a high-priced but underperforming veteran is on the roster (Jeff Weaver/Jered Weaver last year) or when an overmatched starter continues to get starts just because they've given him a contract (Jeff Weaver this year). In football it's shown less because the contracts aren't guaranteed, but this is one of the situations where I think the same psychology is in play: even if it's best for them to move on without Vick, it would imply that they were wrong to trade Schaub and spend so much time on Vick's development, and thus they will continue on with Vick rather than admit their mistake. Unless he has a truly awful year (and apparently, since the Falcons are willing to continue to go with him despite no tangible passing game improvement in years, the last few years don't qualify as "truly awful") or he gets a lengthy prison sentence, I don't see them cutting him. It's not even an issue of cap circumstances (the hit that they'd take isn't that bad), but that they won't admit their mistake at this point. They've poured so much time and effort into Vick that I can't see them cutting bait now. I could be totally wrong, but I thought -250 was good, even with the long duration. I wouldn't tie a large percentage of my roll up in it, but for a small bet I think there's value.
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