$3.40 Stars QQ on bubble

DiCkO · #1 05-18-2007, 12:24 AM

Both seemed like decent players

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t50/t100
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1275
Button: t8845
SB: t1690
Hero: t3190

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls t100 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t150)</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to t3100</font>, SB folds, Hero ...

DLKeeper1 · #2 05-18-2007, 12:51 AM

I call you have to be ahead of his range especially in a 3.40...shorties still have over 12bb so there's no reason to try to fold into the money

DeuceSeven · #3 05-18-2007, 02:10 AM

According to sngpt, this is a marginally -ev call. I fold.

Kevin8423 · #4 05-18-2007, 02:12 AM

At the 16s I probably wouldn't fold here except to a good reg, I'm never folding this in a 3.40. The short stacks aren't even that short compared to the blinds, and winning this is huge. Folding wouldn't be a bad thing though, I don't think you can really go wrong here.

ADLinden · #5 05-18-2007, 02:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
At the 16s I probably wouldn't fold here except to a good reg, I'm never folding this in a 3.40.

[/ QUOTE ]

filsteal · #6 05-18-2007, 02:37 AM

ICM says you need to be a 75% favorite here for calling to be better than folding. You need villain to be pushing over half his hands to be a 75% favorite with QQ, and there's no way that's the case.

Clear fold.

mmctrab · #7 05-18-2007, 11:24 PM

It's a strange bet size from the button. I think I fold since I have 31 big blinds and wait for a better spot.

TwistedEcho · #8 05-18-2007, 11:30 PM

i cant call quick enough.

Taking AA/KK out of his range you are about there with 70%, and when you win this hand you are in great shape to win

filsteal · #9 05-19-2007, 12:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Taking AA/KK out of his range you are about there with 70%, and when you win this hand you are in great shape to win

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if we take AA/KK out of his range, he still has to be pushing at least the rest of the top 40% for this to be a call, if you have faith in the ICM numbers. If you want to say ICM doesn't apply here for some reason, then that's a different story. But ICM says fold.

GotQuads · #10 05-19-2007, 08:38 AM

I'd expect to see 66+, Ax most of the time, the other times a random hand. If we really need 75% here (I didn't check), then we must fold.