simple turn spot.

Guruman · #1 05-19-2007, 07:58 PM

villain in this hand is taggish and maybe a bit tight pf. He’s been paying attention and I’ve been running hot. I think he’s got TT-AA here nearly 100% of the time.

ThGuruman: Big Blind ($1)
** Dealing Down Cards **
Dealt to ThGuruman: [Ac, Ad]
Player 1: raise ($2)
Player 3: fold
Player 4: fold
Player 5: fold
ThGuruman: raise ($2)
Player 1: raise ($2)
ThGuruman: call ($1)
** Dealing Flop **
Community cards: [Ts, 4c, 6h]
ThGuruman: bet ($1)
Player 1: raise ($2)
ThGuruman: raise ($2)
Player 1: raise ($2)
ThGuruman: call ($1)
** Dealing Turn **
Community cards: [2c]
ThGuruman: …

bet out or checkraise?

MacGuyV · #2 05-19-2007, 08:27 PM

Doesn't seem like a "cap for free card" board and the turn's a brick...I'd C/R.

downrange · #3 05-19-2007, 08:41 PM

I'm not sure a tight guy caps TT in either spot, certainly can't see what he gains capping flop in position; I'd c-r/cd (don't know where max rake is but would be a shame paying again on split pot or losing to IMM the less likely TT)

Guruman · #4 05-19-2007, 08:47 PM

wpex, rake's rebated.

Guruman · #5 05-19-2007, 08:55 PM

yeah, i bet out and immediately kicked myself. then i kicked myself again when he just called down.

noob_sauce · #6 05-19-2007, 10:57 PM

meh, I usually mix it up here a bit...

i think the correct play most likely depends on whether villain would raise KK/QQ here to our lead, allowing us to get 3-bets in here on the turn...

I think the cap pre flop greatly rules out TT, and cap on flop greatly rules out JJ given our reads. I am not afraid of a check behind if we check the turn this gets bet 99% of the time when we check.

lets think things out here. If i were in villains spot this flop cap gives me alot of info when I am holding QQ/KK. if you lead the turn I almost end up calling down with QQ. KK I am not sure, but I think end up calling down when you lead as well, but for arguments sake I will say villain will raise turn 50% of the time with KK when led into on turn

leading turn
25% of the time we will gain 3 bets on turn when villain raises KK
75% of the time we gain 1 bet on turn when he calls down

according to my crude calculations, leading gains us
2 bets

now for the c/r...
almost 100% of the time we are going to get 2 bets in on the turn here when we c/r

both plays are pretty neutral IMO

I think oddball times that we get capped by TT and villain checks behind on turn cancel each other out, not affecting my decision.

noob_sauce · #7 05-19-2007, 10:59 PM

just curious guru... in villains spot, do you call down vs. a player with your stats etc. if you have KK and are led into?

if so my calculations above may be a bit optimistic in favor of leading out... (I thought the calculation would favor going for the c/f despite this number)