500nl live, embarrasing Pot odds question

[Readzie]

okay 10 handed 500max game, 5/8 diamonds on the button, 5 limpers infront. I limp SB raises to 35. 6 players to a flop.

Villian has $1000 and i have $1600. 210 in pot.

flop 876 with one diamond. He bets out $100 and it folds to
Normally i would say this is an insta raise to $350ish but he is drunk and has shown no reason at all for me to believe he can fold an overpair. Given iam only 45% chance to win at best i simply decide to just call. My main reason for calling is that normally you raise because if you hit your 4 card straight etc, they wont pay you off. This guy will, hence the call.

Okay 410 in pot now. Turn comes a 3.

Board: 8763 rainbow. 410pot

He bets out 200, and here i iam with a 30% chance to win, its 200 to win 610.

excluding impled odds is this a 3% losing call or a 5% winning call? Essentially iam asking is 3:1 you need 33% chance to win or 25% chance to win to break even?

Obv i know this is a winning call because of implied odds but it still sort of made me sick to my stomach that i didnt know the answer right then at the table.

Btw hand advice welcome, i just coulda asked the question but showing the hand i think is funner. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Paul Thomson]

When you have 33% equity, you need pot odds of 4-1. next time post this in the probability forum.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
When you have 33% equity, you need pot odds of 4-1. next time post this in the probability forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

you meant 2-1 right? as in pot is $100, opponent bets $100, and you can call up to $100.

[wtf5]

[ QUOTE ]
When you have 33% equity, you need pot odds of 4-1. next time post this in the probability forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

O RRY?

[Reef]

k he probably gets the pt

[drj003]

If you have a 33% chance of winning, you need 3-1 odds because 33% of 3 is 1.

[Wu36]

pls stop the leveling, its making my head hurt.
33= 2-1 25 = 3-1

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When you have 33% equity, you need pot odds of 4-1. next time post this in the probability forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

O RRY?

[/ QUOTE ]

i meant, 2-1...lol.

[Readzie]

see this is why i had to post... i freggin asked 4 professional players one a MTT player, one a sng one LHE player and one cash game player... all 4 gave me different asnwers.. its unreal.

what is the final answer? Lol geezo. With a 30% Chance to win getting 3:1... is it a 5% long term winning call or 3% losing call excluding implied odds?

5% winner right? meaning 3:1 odds layed you only need to win 25% of the time to break even.... right?

[drj003]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have a 33% chance of winning, you need 3-1 odds because 33% of 3 is 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just kicked myself in the head for making an ass of myself. 2-1 it's 2-1