NL200 : AQs turn trips vs passive player

sccl · #1 05-17-2007, 12:06 PM

Villain has not raised once in about 30 hands. He seems somwhat passive postflop.
Shall I raise somewhere ? Is river a fold ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB ($227.15)
UTG ($46)
UTG+1 ($44.40)
MP1 ($97.30)
MP2 ($117.20)
MP3 ($139.20)
Hero ($246.55)
Button ($188.55)
SB ($153.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 raises to $4, Hero calls $4, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($15) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP3 bets $10, Hero calls $10, Button folds.

Turn: ($35) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets $12, Hero calls $12.

River: ($59) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets $40, Hero calls $40.

Final Pot: $139

raistlinx · #2 05-17-2007, 12:12 PM

Against most players the river is a fold.

Javanewt · #3 05-17-2007, 12:15 PM

I might have raised the turn. If raised or called, easy fold on turn and easy fold on river bet.

River is ugly. Tough to fold, but as played I can easily see his having a fh. I'm a nit, but I'd fold.

zman2245 · #4 05-17-2007, 12:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Against most players the river is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. Especially since you said he seems passive postflop (even though 30 hands isn't much). Anyways, let's think about his range.

He probably has an ace and given that he raised PF it's AJ,AQ, or AK most of the time. Uck! Of course he could also have KK or even JJ (much less likely). The point is - just about every possible hand he could have beats you.

If villain was particularly aggro he might have been raising Ax suited PF, or could have KQ or something. But this is probably not the case here.

sccl · #5 05-17-2007, 12:26 PM

I can't trust my postflop read as this is his first raise preflop so the first time he has the initiative.

zman2245 · #6 05-17-2007, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't trust my postflop read as this is his first raise preflop so the first time he has the initiative.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that when he raises PF he may not be passive postflop? Good point. I think you are correct but I still think it's a fold. Do you disagree with this? If so what is villain's range?

Jeff76 · #7 05-17-2007, 12:56 PM

I can't think of a hand we can beat on the river, unless villain is stone cold bluffing.

effang · #8 05-17-2007, 01:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I might have raised the turn. If raised or called, easy fold on turn and easy fold on river bet.

River is ugly. Tough to fold, but as played I can easily see his having a fh. I'm a nit, but I'd fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, you guys are all crazy. "easy fold".

i don't think this is an "easy fold" at all. you have the nut Trips.

it is an easy decision NOT to raise, that's for sure. aside from that, it is extremely cheap.

however, what is he showing up here with that he raises with and didn't boat up? that's why the river may be an easy fold (because now you only beat AT, and is he really raising with AT?) but if on the turn you raised, and he shoved, that would be a difficult fold. especially since 30 hands isn't even a sample size. i run 24/8/2, and on some tables i can have a PFR of 1 over 60+ hands.

sccl · #9 05-17-2007, 02:10 PM

I think as played that the river was an easy fold.
But I somehow decide during the hand that his pf range was much larger than I thought ; including AXs, A9+...
I'm more interested about wether I should have raised turn or not.

binions · #10 05-17-2007, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has not raised once in about 30 hands. He seems somwhat passive postflop.
Shall I raise somewhere ? Is river a fold ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB ($227.15)
UTG ($46)
UTG+1 ($44.40)
MP1 ($97.30)
MP2 ($117.20)
MP3 ($139.20)
Hero ($246.55)
Button ($188.55)
SB ($153.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 raises to $4, Hero calls $4, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($15) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP3 bets $10, Hero calls $10, Button folds.

Turn: ($35) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets $12, Hero calls $12.

River: ($59) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets $40, Hero calls $40.

Final Pot: $139

[/ QUOTE ]

We know this. Villain is sitting at $139 at a $200 table. That's your first clue he doesn't know what he is doing. Second clue is that he is passive. Third clue is that he minraised.

Now, he may be tight passive, since this was his first preflop raise in 30 hands. But 30 hands isn't much of a sample. He could have been card dead.

So, preflop he makes it 4 to go, a minraise. You have AQs in the cutoff. I would consider raising to isolate. You don't want to give the button or the blinds a cheap ticket. And you wouldn't mind getting the blinds to fold = dead money. Finally, he is passive, so he may fold preflop or on the flop to continued pressure.

As played, he now bets $10 into a $15 pot out of position against you and the button. This is a standard c-bet size (maybe a little on the small side multiway, but its a rainbow board), and certainly he could be betting top pair or better, or he could be betting with a hand worse than yours.

You have the button behind you. If you call, the button is getting 35:10 to call. If this was a 2 flush board, I would consider raising the flop. Even as a rainbow board, those are good odds and I would consider raising.

As played, when the A hits the turn, you have to raise his $12 bet.

As played, you have to call his $40 bet because: 1) you have shown no strength in the hand, and 2) you are ahead at least 40/139 or ~29% of the time.

If he had AJ or AK or AA or KK, nothing you could do. If he had JJ or QT, you should have never let him see the river.