IIHF World Ice Hockey Championships, Moscow

[jelly]

I wrote the post a couple of hours ago when 2+2 was down but the numbers seem to be quite up-to-date anyway.


WC start on Friday and Futures lines on Pinny inspired me to have one more go after my Eurohockey threads fell asleep.

WC Winner
Current lines are as follows, my estimates of true line in brackets in comments below.

1 Canada +300
2 Russia +263
3 Sweden +387
4 Czech Republic +613
5 Finland +824
6 USA +1932
7 Slovakia +1213
8 Switzerland +10660
9 Field (includes all others) +12500

Of the three favorites, some value lies in Sweden (+350), do not touch obvious favorite Russia (+320) and apparent square choice Canada (+400). Slovakia is the best longshot (+1000), Finland is close (+800), Czech Rep. overvalued (+900). USA (+2800) is not nearly attractive to me as odds might seem to be but I know little about the team. Switzerland (+8000) is a real long shot but they are actually in a pretty good position to reach semifinals if they avoid Canada in quarter-final (CZE,SVK,USA are other possibilities).

My bets:
Switzerland +10660 0.10u-10.66u
Slovakia +1253 1.60u-20u

I am buying Sweden in a different way (see below)

Finish higher
Head-to-head for three top teams seems to copy undervalaution of Sweden even more.

Sweden higher than Canada +145 3.57u-5.18u (good to +130)
Sweden higher than Russia +160 3.57u-5.71u (good to +145)
Russia higher than Canada -120 1.20u-1u

Plays Final
Yes/No lines on all TOP7 teams to play final game are good for shorting overvalued teams so this is where I am selling Czech Rep.

Will Czech Rep. reach the Gold Medal Match? No -261 6u-2.3u

Final Comments
I am also going to buy Finland from a local bookie that has better price than Pinny (surprise). In rare cases (SWE heads up), I am not betting as many units as I would like to because of reaching betting limit.

Good luck and feel free to post your views in this thread.


Edit: typo in SUI bet size

[coolmoedee]

Um, I can't see Canada not winning this thing. There is tonnes of Canadian talent on the team this year thanks to some good players not making the playoffs. Go Canada

[Runner Runner]

Ok Jelly, I am blindly following you on this (due to sharp sounding writeup and personal need for action) so you better know what you are talking about. LOL GL

[jelly]

[ QUOTE ]
Um, I can't see Canada not winning this thing. There is tonnes of Canadian talent on the team this year thanks to some good players not making the playoffs. Go Canada

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose you are saying this year in and year out. Every year, good players do not make NHL playoffs and they come to WC in 7+ different national teams. You also seem to have a good grasp of tournament structure and remember that Canada is 3-1-0 on medals in last 10 years (CZE is 4-1-2 and SWE is 2-3-3). Go Sporting Events forum [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[B00T]

who is the goalie for Sweden?

[Mediocre_Player]

Also remember that this tourneys means WAY more to Euro's than Canadians ... and certain Canadians would like to say the opposite about the stanley cup :|

Canada has the best team almost every year (except for those few Czech teams), but often comes home busted in the quarters or semi's.

[Limpfold]

Swede goalies are 3 from our league here that was heavily criticized by swede experts saying they didn't cut it.
Sweden will put less NHLplayers on the team this year it seems so I don't fancy our chances that much although I haven't checked up on the other teams.
I would never bet Sweden at those odds though, Finland would be a much better pick IMO, they got 4 NHLplayers (Koivu,Ruuttu,Nummelin,Lehtonen) on the team so far and Kiprusoff will answer if he's coming shortly.
I don't like Russia either because their good players tend to not perform 100% and teamspirit is somewhat lacking.
Czechs when they have a disciplined team is awesome defensively and sharp in the counterattacks so depending on their squad they should be a contender too.
But no to Sweden.

[jelly]

[ QUOTE ]
who is the goalie for Sweden?

[/ QUOTE ]

Official lineup is not out yet (AFAIK). Sweden lost tonight at home 3-5 to USA. GK on lineup in this game are Ersberg, Backlund, Henriksson which are no stars indeed. The result bothers me more but I do not see the game so I cannot tell if it is significant.

[Limpfold]

They sucked. Coach said after the game he wasn't content with anyone or anything.

[jelly]

Picks for the first bloodbath round (Fri/Sat)

Game of the Day
Switzerland -0.5 (-125) vs. Latvia 3.75u-3u

I have already showed that SUI is my personal favorite as I was quite impressed by their game in double friendly vs. Czech Rep. Latvia is a fine team but Switzerland is stronger than ever and their fine youth team results are about to be seen in A team as well.

USA -2.5 (-110) vs. Austria 1.1u-1u
No special knowledge, respect to USA for beating Sweden.

Ukraine/Finland OVER 6 (+127) 1u-1.27u
Ukraine has pretty weak team this year, FIN -3.5 is a viable option but I can see Finland playing offensively and I would not want to see 5-2 or 6-3.

Belarus +2 (-110) vs. Czech Rep. 1.1u-1u
Belarus/Czech Rep. UNDER 5.5 (-112) 1.12u-1u

No blowout here, it took a miscalled goal to beat Belarus 2-0 at home in October and the European core of the Czech team was present. Both teams are good at defense.

Switzerland/Latvia OVER 5 (-101) 2.02u-2u
Switzerland has huge defensive reputation but I could see that they now play hockey too. Latvia is Russian style offense so the line is too low.