RiverBluf vs TAG/LAG 200NL in Blind Battle

[Zealot]

200NL Blind battle
Blinds 1$ 2$

Stacksizes
Hero (BB) 182$
Villain (SB) 255$

Villain runs 26/24/3 over 97 hands and is a decent player.

Hero is dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Pre-flop
SB raises to 6, Hero calls 4

Flop8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets 9, Hero calls 9

Turn3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, hero bets 20, SB calls

RiverA [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets 40, hero raises to $147.30 and is all-in

What do we think about this riverplay?

[Zealot]

bump

[***]

I am not a fan. Although you say it is a blind battle you don't say how many other players fold ahead of you. That matters because a headsup game plays a little differently. I'm assuming this is a 5 or 6 max hand for my analysis.

I think that you should 3-bet preflop. A loose aggressive player is going to open with a very wide range here, but he can't call a 3-bet with most of it because he is out of position and getting poor odds. Your hand isn't worth slowplaying and it can definitely get you into trouble - just end it now.

As played I don't mind the float because the board is fairly dry and you can steal on a lot of turns. You implement your plan on the turn which is fine, though I like to bet slightly more: about $25. It cuts the odds a little and discourages loose peels. I think this is a case where the extra $5 buys you enough more fold equity to be worthwhile.

On the river I prefer to fold. Villain's line is strange, but yours is stranger and I think he will be inclined to look you up just because he can't put you on a hand. I think your fold equity is low here, maybe like 30-35%. Villain can't really put you on an ace, so I think he's inclined to divide your range into sets, air, and 89s (turned into a bluff). Since there are many more combos of air and he's represented that he can at least tie eights up you are getting called by a lot. I prefer overbetting for value here when you actually have a hand.

[Zealot]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not a fan. Although you say it is a blind battle you don't say how many other players fold ahead of you. That matters because a headsup game plays a little differently. I'm assuming this is a 5 or 6 max hand for my analysis.

I think that you should 3-bet preflop. A loose aggressive player is going to open with a very wide range here, but he can't call a 3-bet with most of it because he is out of position and getting poor odds. Your hand isn't worth slowplaying and it can definitely get you into trouble - just end it now.

As played I don't mind the float because the board is fairly dry and you can steal on a lot of turns. You implement your plan on the turn which is fine, though I like to bet slightly more: about $25. It cuts the odds a little and discourages loose peels. I think this is a case where the extra $5 buys you enough more fold equity to be worthwhile.

On the river I prefer to fold. Villain's line is strange, but yours is stranger and I think he will be inclined to look you up just because he can't put you on a hand. I think your fold equity is low here, maybe like 30-35%. Villain can't really put you on an ace, so I think he's inclined to divide your range into sets, air, and 89s (turned into a bluff). Since there are many more combos of air and he's represented that he can at least tie eights up you are getting called by a lot. I prefer overbetting for value here when you actually have a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, thanks for your good reply

You are right this is a 6max game so it plays indeed a bit different compared to HU.

As for pre-flop, I indeed have the best hand here alot and I do 3-bet it usually.

I think you are right about the extra 5$ on the turn, should give me some more credit.

As for the fold equity on the river, Id take the 35% since that makes me a profit.

If we assume i have 35% fold equity, I win 65% of the time 110$ and lose 35% of the time 147$. So 0,65*110= 71,5 and 0,35 *147= 51,45

So the value of the bluf should be about +20$

what do you think of this line of reasoning?

[***]

When I say that you have 35% fold equity I mean that villain folds 35% of the time. I think that you are getting looked up a lot.

35% of the time you win $110 -> +38.5
and 65% of the time you lose $147.3 -> -95.75
Net EV of your play: -$57.25

Even if villain folds half the time you are still getting the worst of it (breakeven at villain folding ~57% of the time). I don't think you can count on villain folding to the push that often given your action so far.

[Zealot]

hmmm interesting. Maybe I should have added to the reads in the original hand that I run at 21/14/5. I find it hard to believe that someone will stack off to a 21/14 type with an underpair to the board getting 2.4-1 odds.

But anyway as you already said it all comes down to judging how much FE one has to determine wheter to bluff profitably at it or not.