5CD "draw 3" odds question

ArtMonkRules · #1 05-09-2007, 03:14 AM

I know the odds of a pair turning into trips, but how about the odds of it becoming 2 pair?

Murakawa · #2 05-09-2007, 01:13 PM

aboot 1 in 3.

List · #3 05-09-2007, 01:33 PM

Wrong. It's ~16%. Overall probability of improving is ~29%.

bigpooch · #4 05-09-2007, 04:36 PM

Out of the C(47,3)=16215 combinations, there are:

45 for quads
165 for a full house
1854 for trips
2592 for two pairs

Also, another pair of an unseen rank is made on 246
combinations whereas for a rank of a side kicker, it is
only 126. (As a check, 246*9+126*3=2592).

Barring opponent action that might skew the distribution of
ranks of cards ever so slightly, the probability is about
2592/16215 = 0.159852 or almost 16%.