[50NL] Overpair gets raised on the turn

selector2006 · #1 05-03-2007, 01:36 PM

I thought he was on a flushdraw, or maybe straightdraw (or even a combination of both) so I bet the turn. But then I get raised.

MP2 player stats over 482 hands:
VPIP: 24,69%
PFR: 11,41%
Turn AF: 3.71
Total AF: 3.39

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 ($57)
MP3 ($36.35)
CO ($46.75)
Button ($62)
SB ($25.45)
BB ($49.50)
UTG ($55.15)
UTG+1 ($49.50)
Hero ($52.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, MP2 calls $2, 5 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, MP2 calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $7, MP2 raises to $16, Hero ??

Usually it's an easy fold and I don't look back at the HH afterwards. But this time I was wondering, can he raise me with a draw?

So I wanted to post it here. I believe it's a good fold by me, because 8 out of 10 times my opponent has a good or very good hand. I think he has at least 2 pair, tens and jacks.

Or is this raise triggered by a weak turnbet by me?

Is it too cheap for me to call the raise, so I can not fold?

Jurrr · #2 05-03-2007, 01:41 PM

I think you can and should fold.

raistlinx · #3 05-03-2007, 01:53 PM

Typically this is a fold. However, with the smaller turn bet and his high aggro on the turn I'm not so sure you are beat. The problem is you are OOP, so even if you call and check the river to him he is likely going to bet. In position I think I would call and see what he does on the river, here I am folding OOP.

If you do call the turn I think you have to put out a blocking bet against him... he will bet the river.

Given his high AF on the turn I might have tried to check raise here. It sucks that the board is so wet and if he checks behind on the turn and a draw comes in on the river you will have a tough decision to make, but I still think the c/r is worth a shot here due to his turn AF.

masterdon · #4 05-03-2007, 01:54 PM

I think the size of your turn bet was fine.

His raise looks like he wants to take you to value town real bad. There is not much here that you beat.

kcb · #5 05-03-2007, 02:27 PM

IMO, a draw raises you on the flop, but something like 54 of spades could raise here on the turn.

If I had to guess, I'd say he either has JT, 32s, or turned a set of dueces.

Mazzinger · #6 05-03-2007, 02:39 PM

I think he hit a set (222). I think you should fold.

Albert Moulton · #7 05-03-2007, 07:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can and should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold looks good to me too.

free card · #8 05-03-2007, 10:38 PM

I believe its close because your opponent could be on the draw either with a flush draw or a flush-straight draw combo. However, your oppoent has invested $21.50 out of his $57 dollars with this hand. If you were to see the river, he would have $34.50 behind. I think at this point, he had a made 2 pair such as J10. It's common for players at these limits to call on the flop, and raise the turn if they believe they are way ahead on the flop. I don't put him on QJ-AJ or a set because he probably would have raised the flop. On the river, it is very likely to shove all of his chips in here, or make a very large bet. You are out of position, it's best to throw your Queens ahead. Like you said, 80% of the time he will have your queens beat.

selector2006 · #9 05-04-2007, 05:19 AM

Ok, thanks for the comments.

I folded the turn. At that time I knew it was the right move, but sometimes I need confirmation.