27's Bubble Hand vs. Ih8money

[PattdownManiac]

Ih8money is one of the best players in the 27's.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t3520)
Button (t3110)
Hero (t5170)
BB (t1700)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Button raises to t3085 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">Hero folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

If this was someone else, I'd be more apt to call, but I don't think he is going to risk bubbling with 15 bb's with hands like KQ, etc. AQ, probably. AJ? I don't know. I think he has a pocket pair and just doesn't want to get screwed with. And coinflip'ing here would be horrible in my view. It's easy to just fold, and continue on to the next hand with a big chip lead on the bubble. When I call and lose to TT and now have 2000 chips I'd feel pretty dumb.

What do you guys think?

[malnek]

um call even if u lose u will have more chips than bb. oh and fwiw in the few games ive played against him at the 16s this guy pushed pretty wide in spots where he shouldnt be possibly too many tables.

[BHokie1]

Highly +EV call, even if you lose it's not horrible you are not crippled. You will still have more than the short stack.

[Van Strummer]

I let this one go.

If you lose this hand you forfeit the +EV pushes you will be able to make in the coming hands as the bigstack here. I am pretty sure the EV form these pushes outweigh the EV of this call (if the call is positive at all).

[PattdownManiac]

According to power tools he has to be shoving 11% for it to be a call, which includes AT, A8s, KQ, and KTs. I don't think he is shoving those hands. What do you guys think?

[malnek]

"if the call is positive at all" lol cmon man this is a snap call. i mean icm cant predict future actions but you cant either

[Ditch Digger]

Not calling here is really bad.

[PattdownManiac]

If you guys think this call is highly +ev can you please explain? What range of hands do you think he is shoving? I've used power tools, let's get technical and not just say "u have ak call duhz".

[Kevin8423]

I definitley call this. He probably isn't shoving AA or KK, you completely destroy Ax hands, split with AK, you flip with PPs which isn't that bad of a situation either since you have a playable stack even when you lose (and dominate ITM when you win).

Maybe I just didn't play with him enough but from the fairly high amount of play with him at the 16s he wasn't at the top of my regulars list there, he's one of the best at 27s?

[PattdownManiac]

I guess I was remembering wrong, sharkscope shows him to have a barely positive roi in the 27's. But does that mean he is shoving KTs?

Maybe I am giving him too much credit for not shoving Ax hands. But I think coinflip'ing here is really bad.