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#1
04-21-2007, 01:55 AM
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Big fold or push? Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite Hand
Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite, winner takes 25k seat.
25000 starting chips, 20 minute round, 100/200. Villain is Juha Helppi. This is the first time I play with him, no read. 8 handed. Juha has 48500, he busted one guy in the first round. I have 55000. My showdowns were good, AA, JJ, etc... Blind 200/400. Fold to Juha on the button. He raises to 1200. SB folds. I look down A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I call. Two players. 2600 pot. Flop T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet 2400. This maniac villain moves all-in for 47500 into 5000 pot. Hero? If this is a $500 satellite, I'd call in no time. But, for $3000 satellite, do we gamble at this early stage? 
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#2
04-21-2007, 02:23 AM
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Re: Big fold or push? Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite Hand
[ QUOTE ]
If this is a $500 satellite, I'd call in no time. But, for $3000 satellite, do we gamble at this early stage? [/ QUOTE ] Aside from perhaps quality of players, why should our decision differ? Back to the hand... I'd put his range as 4dXd, some kind of straight flush draw, and sets. I can't imagine he'd do this with a bare flush draw or JJ+. Since I assume this is WTA, I might take this gamble because a) you're never destroyed by any part of his range, and b) this is a good chance to sieze a huge chip lead and knock out one of the better opponents.
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#3
04-21-2007, 02:27 AM
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Re: Big fold or push? Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite Hand
[ QUOTE ]
If this is a $500 satellite, I'd call in no time. But, for $3000 satellite, do we gamble at this early stage? [/ QUOTE ] lol? What is the connection>
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#4
04-21-2007, 02:35 AM
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Re: Big fold or push? Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite Hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If this is a $500 satellite, I'd call in no time. But, for $3000 satellite, do we gamble at this early stage? [/ QUOTE ] lol? What is the connection> [/ QUOTE ] I'd say the opposite is true. I'd rather call in the $3000 than in a $500.
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#7
04-21-2007, 04:11 AM
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Re: Big fold or push? Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite Hand
I would re-raise PF, your hand is much better than his range.
He doesn't do this with sets probably. Most people don't? Anyway it doesn't really matter, if he has 4Kd you are %52. People often steal from button with Ax right? so in this case he is 53% and you're still not shabby with odds. If he has a set your 26%. Two pair your %37. It's interesting because your not even getting 6:5, you need %46 on average to call. 4s Ts 8s are likely too, but from a straight statistical perspective without adjusting it to player tendencies these are less likely then other holdings. It looks like when he does have a set your killed but this isn't most of the time at all. I think if he will do this with creative/crazy holdigns sometimes like pairs or combo draws which I imagine he would, and this is a great board for that, you will be weighted ahead in the equity. In summary I call because I think you have equity since he isn't a rock PF presumably, and because you get to knock out a good opponent, increasing your equity edge over bad players.
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#8
04-21-2007, 04:41 AM
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Re: Big fold or push? Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite Hand
This is WTA, so you don't mind gambling.
Villain can be pot on certain hands. xd4d, straight flush draw, KdQ/J/Td, overpair, 2-pair, or set. If he has a striaght flush draw or Kdxd, you have him crushed. You are a little behind most of the other hands. Even though this is a big overbet, you are getting some pot odds. I think this is pretty close. A reraise preflop is fine, but I think it is OK to flat call OOP. If you reraise, I suppose you flat call a 4-bet.
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#9
04-21-2007, 06:10 AM
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Re: Big fold or push? Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite Hand
Do you lead flop with the intention to 3bet AI? Or are you going to flatcall if he raises?
From what I have seen(on TV, lol) Juha is pretty agressive. I think I like the good ol'e checkraise here, and plan to call a shove.
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#10
04-21-2007, 07:11 AM
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Re: Big fold or push? Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite Hand
[ QUOTE ]
Do you lead flop with the intention to 3bet AI? Or are you going to flatcall if he raises? From what I have seen(on TV, lol) Juha is pretty agressive. I think I like the good ol'e checkraise here, and plan to call a shove. [/ QUOTE ] From what I remember of Juha's match with Lindgren, I think I call.
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