NL200: JJ overpair 3bet pot against aggro villain

[Jurrr]

Villain is multitabling NL100 to NL400 TAG regular, 13.5/7.6. He knows I 3bet light; he 3bets me light; he has 4bet or 5bet shoved a couple of times before and I have folded.

SB: $504.90
BB: $153.92
UTG: $249.91
UTG+1: $132.85
MP1: $103
<font color="black">Hero (MP2): $629.45</font>
<font color="black">MP3: $290.95</font>
CO: $55.80
BTN: $240.40

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J (9 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $2, MP1 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="red">MP3 raises to $30</font>, 5 folds, Hero calls $20

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($65) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP3 bets $45</font>, Hero calls $45

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($155) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP3 bets all-in for $215.95</font>, Hero...?

[disko]

i think you need to lead out the flop and maybe turn here. check/calling is asking for trouble imo.

[BlueBear]

Leading the flop/turn inflates the pot unnecessarily IMO. I prefer to fold here as MP3 is just value-betting a bigger pair far more often than anything else.

[disko]

checking allows him to take control of the hand and hit his cards if he has ak. i think even if you check the turn, you have to lead out on the flop. leading out on the flop gets rid of ak and you know where you stand. it's a tough spot.

[Jurrr]

I didn't lead flop as no worse hands call and no better hands fold.

As played, what is his range on the turn?

[monkeymaps]

AK of spades?
poket tens with huge overbet?

How often do you think this is a worse hand from villian if ever given your history?

[novel20]

He may have:
1. Air
2. Multiple draw and still miss all on turn
3. QQ+

Trust your read, and call or fold accordingly.

[zman2245]

This is a tough spot but given what you have said of villain I would lean towards calling.

[RyanCMU]

I think this is a fold.

Villain has to think you have something to call his flop bet? Or have you been floating him a lot lately since he 3bets light often, more importantly, has he noticed or would he even notice?

If you haven't been getting out of line post flop and floating really light, I think this is a fold because villain is just betting a better hand often enough.

Most of the time he has a hand here or at least a strong draw with a lot of outs to your JJ, such as AKs.

The flop call is fine, I really don't like a flop lead because, I can see the villain boosting unimproved AK on this flop a lot of the time.

A turn lead could be interesting though, but assuming your folding to a shove by him of course.

As played I like the hand though and its a fold I'm not mad about making.

[Larude]

You check to him twice so i would think you have a draw or 8-JJ. You have to show strength somewhere, betting the turn after calling the turn would show strength. If you bet a 100 he might think you are potcommitted and not checkraise you with air, now you have shown weakness two times, he could be doing this with a lot of hands, surely seen your 'past' together. A call would totally be a dark tunnel.... So yeah I would fold in this case to.