Playing the overpair OOP in huge multiway pot - yikes

D. Bosola · #1 04-26-2007, 08:48 PM

I always have difficulty playing these hands so I thought I'd post about it. For what it's worth this is my first-ever post to this forum, although I have lurked for many years.

It's difficult to know what to do here when you're out of position, and preflop was very difficult to play because the tournament was pot-limit. The difficult thing here is that I unquestionably have the best hand, and make a hefty raise preflop, but get called in three places.

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1280
UTG+1: t3040
MP1: t1480
MP2: t1580
MP3: t1500
CO: t1320
Button: t1420
Hero: t2120
BB: t2640

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls t30 (pot was t45), UTG+1 calls t30 (pot was t75), 2 folds, MP3 calls t30 (pot was t105), 2 folds, Hero raises to t180, BB calls t150 (pot was t300), UTG calls t150 (pot was t450), UTG+1 calls t150 (pot was t600), MP3 folds.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t750, 4 players)
Hero bets t240, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls t240 (pot was t990).

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1230, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t480

Hero...?

markbris · #2 04-26-2007, 08:50 PM

Bet the pot on the flop and be ready to get it all in

Xanthro · #3 04-26-2007, 08:58 PM

As played bet the pot after UTG+1 bets.

You'll see AT, AJ ready to felt here.

I'd bet more pre-flop, because any A or K on the flop can kill your action. As played I'd also bet more on the flop. While you are pretty sure you have the best hand right now, you still don't want to see an A or K. Your bet wasn't even half the pot.

If they all fold you've just added 750 to your stack, and if they call and hit the A or K they still made a mistake.

LSgambler · #4 04-26-2007, 10:04 PM

You played this hand very bad. I don't understand the small bet on the flop. You need to bet like 600-750 to protect your hand and to build the pot so that you can shove on the turn.

D. Bosola · #5 04-27-2007, 01:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You played this hand very bad. I don't understand the small bet on the flop. You need to bet like 600-750 to protect your hand and to build the pot so that you can shove on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

It might be better if I explain my line (and the reasoning behind it) a little better so that you don't think I play every hand this passively. First of all, I was sick to my stomach preflop because blinds were so small I was only able to make it 180 to go. It's still early in the tournament, and stacks are fairly deep compared to the blinds, so people are going to be limping in with a lot of speculative hands. I don't mind them doing that, but when I make a pot-sized raise out of the blind and get called in three places by people who originally limped, my alarm bells go off. This tournament is a ($7+.7) so they could be calling my raise with total trash, but the bottom line is I do not want to be playing a big pot out of position against three random hands when all I have is QQ.

I have no reads on my opponents, so I can only speculate as to what they hold. I know that my raise is probably folding out marginal hands like AT, KT, KJ, QJ, as well as any other random crap that people limp with early. I'm probably also folding out AJo and KQo if my opponents aren't total donkeys. I can discount AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/AK/AQ as part of my opponents' range because they would most likely have raised preflop (especially in pot-limit, and with these stacks).

That leaves AJs/KQs/22-TT and random suited connectors (especially JT) as my opponents' range. On a dry flop like this one, I know that there's a decent chance there's a set lurking behind me. When there are three people who cold-called my preflop raise, that chance is three times as high. With two of those cold-callers having stacks that cover me, and me having to act first, there's no need to go crazy with the queens this early in the tournament. Yes, if an A or K flopped, my decision would be easy (check-fold) but this does not mean I should be getting it all in on any board that does not contain an ace or king.

I have every intention of getting it all in if I am convinced that I have the best hand. Unfortunately I do not know that for certain and I have to act first. I am not pot-committed yet but any bet that is 1/2-pot or more essentially commits me to the pot. The money is still pretty deep so there's no need to go bonkers here. Before I make a large bet, since I have no idea where I am, I have to think about the possible results: if I bet pot (representing an overpair), and nobody has anything, everyone folds and the bet wins nothing. OR I bet pot and I get played back at, in which case I'm probably getting stacked by 22/44/TT. Yes, there's a remote possibility that a donkey stacks off with AT here, but it's essentially the only hand I can beat besides a total bluff or JJ (neither of which are likely).

So I have to act first in a big pot, but I don't have any idea where I am. If I lead out for more than half the pot, there's no way I can fold when someone jams me. I felt that I could get the information I needed by betting 1/3 pot. Obviously there are no flush draws or straight draws that I'm giving the correct odds to call, so I don't need to worry about those. It's possible someone called my raise with total trash, whiffed, and holds an A or K, but that is not likely since we folded out most of those hands with our preflop raise, and even if we didn't, they're drawing to 5 outs at best and getting only 4-1 from the pot. (if they paired on the flop they have 5 outs, otherwise they have only 3 outs because they definitely don't have AK here).

So I bet 1/3 of the pot and get flat-called. Now I have to think, what hand flat calls a 1/3 pot bet on this board after limping in and calling a pot-sized raise preflop? The opponent's range here is a bit tighter, IMHO. Also, I'm now a bit scared of TJ, since it's big part of my opponent's likely calling range on both previous streets. I check the turn for pot control and to see what my opponent does, and he makes another smallish, non-scary bet. So what's my optimal play?

hamnegger · #6 04-27-2007, 03:17 AM

shove

Nogatsira · #7 04-27-2007, 03:44 AM

Bet 800 yourself on the turn. Shove it now

Fiksdal · #8 04-27-2007, 03:56 AM

POT POT POT POT POT POT POT POT.........

registrar · #9 04-27-2007, 04:37 AM

WTF is that flop bet? That's about the best flop you can hope for. Pot the flop and if you're not potting the flop, it's purely to set up an open shove on the turn, or on that turn, perhaps a cheeky CR AI.

My point being, once you see this flop, you only have one aim which is to get to the felt.

D. Bosola · #10 04-27-2007, 11:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
WTF is that flop bet? That's about the best flop you can hope for. Pot the flop and if you're not potting the flop, it's purely to set up an open shove on the turn, or on that turn, perhaps a cheeky CR AI.

My point being, once you see this flop, you only have one aim which is to get to the felt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can someone please explain why it is correct to automatically go to the felt on such a dry flop when my stack is still fairly deep compared to the blinds? I'd like to get to showdown here as cheaply as possible, since if I shove (as everyone is recommending) and actually get action, I'm probably busted. Instead of just chanting "pot, pot, pot, pot" please give a rationale for why it's +EV to make a huge, pot-committing bet in this situation.

Mind you, against one player, I'd play this fast, because it's much less likely someone flopped a set. But since three people called behind me and the pot is now bloated, I don't feel it's correct to bet full pot or even 2/3 pot. I feel the weak lead is correct because my hand is face up if I bet pot, and I'm also not getting value from any worse hands with a pot-sized bet. There are absolutely ZERO draws that I'm afraid of -- so why not bet 1/3 pot, which might actually get me some action from a hand like AT or even 77/88/99? The weak lead looks like a c-bet from a whiffed AK and that is what I want to represent here to get action.

I thought at the time that if he was slowplaying when he called the flop, he would most likely check behind on the turn, looking for me to hang myself on the river. So when I checked the turn and he made a small bet, I figured him for some kind of pair, maybe AJ/AT or 77/88/99. The only hand I was really afraid of at this point was JT, so I shoved.

Unfortunately he snap called me with 44. Not to be results oriented in my analysis but I really feel like it should be possible for me to get away from this hand, since I have so little committed postflop and it's so likely I'm beat if I get any action on my flop bet . It doesn't seem worth it to commit half my stack just to see where I'm at. So I tried to take a line which would either get me the information I needed to commit the rest of my chips, or get me to a cheap showdown.

Ultimately the point of this post is to learn:

A) How should big pairs be played out of position in a big pot against multiple opponents? Would you play them differently in a smaller pot? Or with fewer players behind?

B) In the absence of any reads, is there any way to get away from a big pair on a non-scary board like this?