Smoking vs. Risk of Ruin

[HelixTrix]

I am a smoker who would like to quit. I've actually made a start on this by getting prescribed patches. Unfortunately so far I haven't managed to get on a 'run' with them. Anyway, I just had a train of thought where I found myself comparing giving up smoking to the risk of ruin model. If you have a set bankroll and a set level of play and you always withdraw whenever you go over your set bankroll level, then your RoR is 1, i.e. if you plan to play indefinitely using this system you are 100% likely to go broke at some point. Similarly, if you smoke indefinitely and live indefinitely, your risk of dying of a smoking-related disease is also 100%. HOWEVER, just by being born, your risk of dying SOMEHOW is already 100%. What justification is there for aggressively minimising certain methods of actualising your risk of ruin? Is this a utility value issue?

[BustoPro]

[ QUOTE ]
I am a smoker who would like to quit. I've actually made a start on this by getting prescribed patches. Unfortunately so far I haven't managed to get on a 'run' with them. Anyway, I just had a train of thought where I found myself comparing giving up smoking to the risk of ruin model. If you have a set bankroll and a set level of play and you always withdraw whenever you go over your set bankroll level, then your RoR is 1, i.e. if you plan to play indefinitely using this system you are 100% likely to go broke at some point. Similarly, if you smoke indefinitely and live indefinitely, your risk of dying of a smoking-related disease is also 100%. HOWEVER, just by being born, your risk of dying SOMEHOW is already 100%. What justification is there for aggressively minimising certain methods of actualising your risk of ruin? Is this a utility value issue?

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[luckyjimm]

I am now 32 days off smoking, having smoked 15+ a day previously. I quit by reading Allen Carr's Little Book of Quitting, and using patches for the first week. But really it was the book which did it. Sounds weird to say that something I'd always taken to be an massive and unbeatable addiction could be solved just by reading a book, but it just made sense when I realised the only reason I smoked was to take away the urge for a cigarette. I didn't enjoy it; it just made me feel tired, anxious, panicky. And since smoking causes the urge for cigarettes which it temporarily relieves ("the nicotine trap", I could solve the problem just by stopping. I'd recommend his books.

[mbillie1]

I believe George Carlin's book club first advertised what has become my favorite book of all time: "Eat Right, Stay Fit, Exercise and Die Anyway"

[HelixTrix]

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I quit by reading Allen Carr's Little Book of Quitting

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So many people have mentioned this book. I should try it, ty.

[HelixTrix]

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I believe George Carlin's book club first advertised what has become my favorite book of all time: "Eat Right, Stay Fit, Exercise and Die Anyway"

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This is kind of my point. It's like we're this gambler walking around with a RoR of 1, the certainty of impending busto hanging over him. He can have some fun along the way by making a few bigger and riskier bets, or he can be conservative, stick to the Kelly criterion, keep halving his bets in line with his bankroll, until he reaches the point of no further divisibility. Burn out vs. fade away...

[HelixTrix]

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What justification is there for aggressively minimising certain methods of actualising your risk of ruin? Is this a utility value issue?

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p.s. this was written after a bottle of wine. Sorry, think I went off on one...

[evil twin]

I would also strongly recommend Allen Carrs book(s) for people thinking about giving up the ciggies. I don't think it's that effective if you don't really want to stop but once you start thinking "I ought to stop this at some point" you're ripe for reading the book(s) and having it work.

I smoked 10-20 a day for 15 years and stopped overnight because of his first stop smoking book. By the end of the book you really see the cycle of smoking as a trap you have fallen into and that strongly drives the motivation for quitting. I would also add that I had to be pressured into reading the book and was basically 100% certain it wouldn't work for me and I just needed to apply more willpower.

One final point is that due to the method used by the book I don't in any way crave ciggies. I did not from the moment I had given up. I feel sorry for those people who have managed to give up through willpower but still miss it years later.

[luckyjimm]

Carr's approach works because rather than just remind you of the "bad" points of smoking - the expense, the health risks - he picks apart what the smoker perceives to be the "good" points, and convinces you that actually they don't help you relax, or concentrate, or "taste good", or anything else. Once you see you get nothing from cigarettes, there are no advantages, no up-side, it's easy to quit.

I still occasionally get mild physical cravings, but they're soon banished when I realise a cigarette would only make them worse and get me back on that cycle. I think of them as nicotine half-life.

[kerowo]

You are responsible for the way you live. If you want to live a long, healthy life you will make certain choices. Just because you might die in a car accident tomorrow doesn't get you off the hook for the choices you've made. Chances are you won't get into an accident.