Phil Stacey and Vote For the Worst

[pokerpunchout]

It seems that VFTW has now endorsed Phil Stacey as their candidate. With his switch to country and the new found VFTW endorsment how far do you think he can go? Is there value in him at 1 - 3?

My take is that country has a large fan base (look at how well Carrie Underwood has done with her album sales, and even Bucky for that matter).

It seems that "going country" would be about the best master plan he could initiate right now in order to last the longest. He should pick up the "country vote", and along with the VFTW crowd, he may make top 4 or higher. Granted I see the VFTW numbers going down due to the Sanjay exit, but there still may be some value here. I am not sure he will pull an Elliot (Elliot was at about 2 - 4 last year in this position and made final three where he was selling in the 12 - 15 range if I rember correctly), but I believe he has a shot to go higher. Liquidity may prevent this, however.

Thoughts.

[GoRedBirds]

Who decides who to endorse in VFTW? Sanjaya was a no-brainer, but when it gets down to the wire, it seems like they often pick someone who isn't the worst so they can say they "singlehandedly" got him as far as they did. Is it just some guy with the website that decides? Is there a VFTW panel?

[thing85]

No value at $3 and here's why: Yes, Phil did well at country, but he's been on his way out for weeks now. I'm assuming he won't really be able to sing country again, so he's going to sound like his old self as early as this week. I'm not sure he's smart enough to put a country spin on everything he sings from here on out.

Also, VFTW will be insignificant for Phil. If they couldn't save Sanjaya at this level of the competition, there is NO way they will have an impact on Phil. People felt compelled to have Sanjaya last long, but I'm thinking most people really don't care about Phil. He's boring, even from a "bad singer" standpoint.

Obviously, surprises are always possible, but if you buy at $3, when will the price rise to 4-6 so that you can claim your $1 profit? High risk, low reward. I'd stay away.

[pokerplayer28]

His value wont change from here till performance night (might actually go down) so wait till his performance, good comments from Simom and he'll retain his country votes even if there was no country twist on his song. His value will probably rise to 5-8 7-10

Buying now is not a good idea because I think the likelihood simon gives him good feedback is <10%

[thing85]

Yeah - Simon made it clear on Oprah that his top 2 right now are Melinda and Jordin, with Blake in 3rd (we knew this anyway). He does not like Phil and will give him negative feedback unless he has a stellar performance.

You say that good comments from Simon will push his value up to anywhere from 5-8 to 7-10 or so. But then you mark the likelihood that Simon gives feedback at <10% (which I agree with). In other words, you're giving about a 90% chance that his value won't go up, so taking the best case scenario (7-10), your EV of buying a $3 contract right now is:

10% * (7-3) - 90% (0-3) = -$2.30

This assumes poor comments move Phil's sell price from $1 to $0. FWIW, I think there is less than a 10% chance that his sell price rises to $7. -EV proposition no matter how you slice it, unless you think there's a good chance he puts together a string of good performances that sets him up as one of the favorites (and I'd give this a 1-2% chance of happening given the history of mediocre performances we've seen from him).

[pokerplayer28]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah - Simon made it clear on Oprah that his top 2 right now are Melinda and Jordin, with Blake in 3rd (we knew this anyway). He does not like Phil and will give him negative feedback unless he has a stellar performance.

You say that good comments from Simon will push his value up to anywhere from 5-8 to 7-10 or so. But then you mark the likelihood that Simon gives feedback at <10% (which I agree with). In other words, you're giving about a 90% chance that his value won't go up, so taking the best case scenario (7-10), your EV of buying a $3 contract right now is:

10% * (7-3) - 90% (0-3) = -$2.30

This assumes poor comments move Phil's sell price from $1 to $0. FWIW, I think there is less than a 10% chance that his sell price rises to $7. -EV proposition no matter how you slice it, unless you think there's a good chance he puts together a string of good performances that sets him up as one of the favorites (and I'd give this a 1-2% chance of happening given the history of mediocre performances we've seen from him).

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yup even at 0-2 he's not worth buying based on that <10% if you want to buy you have to wait for his performance or if you have no clue what simon will say you have to wait for his comments, if theyre good buy before everyone else.

Right now if anyone wants value go with Blake always go against the grain. Shorting Lakisha isnt bad either, she'll always be one of the favorites to go home even after a decent performance.

[TheVegan]

I don't think VFTW makes a significant difference in the voting at all. Plus Phil just sucks. And as for what Simon said on Oprah, I didn't hear him say Blake as his 3rd choice. After the first two he said something very positive about Lakisha if she can make better song choices.

[pokerplayer28]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think VFTW makes a significant difference in the voting at all. Plus Phil just sucks. And as for what Simon said on Oprah, I didn't hear him say Blake as his 3rd choice. After the first two he said something very positive about Lakisha if she can make better song choices.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont watch oprah this is from extratv

“Top three at this stage? Jordin, Melinda, Blake,” Simon dished.

The Dawg feels the same exact way: “I think it’s really down to Blake, Melinda and Jordin.”

Apr 19th

[TheVegan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think VFTW makes a significant difference in the voting at all. Plus Phil just sucks. And as for what Simon said on Oprah, I didn't hear him say Blake as his 3rd choice. After the first two he said something very positive about Lakisha if she can make better song choices.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont watch oprah this is from extratv

“Top three at this stage? Jordin, Melinda, Blake,” Simon dished.

The Dawg feels the same exact way: “I think it’s really down to Blake, Melinda and Jordin.”

Apr 19th

[/ QUOTE ]
I apreciate that info but I never give out inaccurate information. Simon didn't say that on Oprah. I saw it. As I think about it more he gave his top two Melinda and Jordin
and then said he wasn't righting off Lakisha. Of course my wording may not be exact but this is bascially what he said in the order he said it.

[TheVegan]

[ QUOTE ]

Shorting Lakisha isnt bad either, she'll always be one of the favorites to go home even after a decent performance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that Lakisha even when good doesn't get enough credit from the fans but I wouldn't short her. I believe she is the best bet, value wise, on the board. The higher her odds go the more I invest in her. Do I think she'll win? Maybe, maybe not. Melinda will be tough to beat but I do think she will be in the final four probably and I think there is a good chance she will make the finals. I certainly will be riding her all the way to the finals. If she goes that far and is against Melinda, the only other voice on Lakisha's level, then I might sell then, but no sooner.