Stars $33, Small Overpair Multiway

[mikeJ]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t4814)
SB (t7410)
BB (t5290)
UTG (t6815)
UTG+1 (t2858)
MP1 (t7312)
Hero (t5549)
MP3 (t2815)
CO (t4780)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t550</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t550, Button calls t550, SB: calls t450, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t2275) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero ?

Alrighty then.

[Bond18]

Fires like 1400.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
Fires like 1400.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call a raise? If there was ever a need for a line, this hand is it.

[Bond18]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fires like 1400.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call a raise? If there was ever a need for a line, this hand is it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on action, who raise is from, what the read or numbers on that player is. To many variables right now to really offer a line per say.

[mikeJ]

My bad. The pot is more like 2625.

I did however, lead for 1400, planning to call a raise from anybody. So I bet smallish trying to widen their range.

If someone shoves for like 4200, I'll be getting nearly 3 to 1. After stoving it, I'm a bit surprised...

Board: 6c 5s 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.150% 71.65% 01.50% 246840 5176.50 { 88+, 66-22 }
Hand 1: 26.850% 25.35% 01.50% 87327 5176.50 { 88 }

Even if I say, he doesn't have 77, the pp I have the best equity against, and fully weight TT+, I'll be getting close to the right odds it seems.

More realistically.

Board: 6c 5s 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.378% 61.73% 01.64% 168684 4489.50 { JJ-55, 33-22, QsJs, JsTs, 87s, 65s }
Hand 1: 36.622% 34.98% 01.64% 95577 4489.50 { 88 }

Where, the full combos 99-JJ, represents combos of 99-AA. I also left out 44, to represent that sometimes 44/33 just calls, I don't think that happens that often but whatever.


However, computing my odds after I've bet isn't all of it. I could've bet 4k and if someone shoved for 4200, I'd be getting like 50 to 1 on a call. So we need to estimate how often the cbet succeeds.

[registrar]

Well, presumably any raise is a stack decision and presumably we're more likely to fold to the CR than the raise?

I quite like a CR here, for the simple and somewhat gay reason that I really don't want to be put to a decision for my stack. That feels a bit dirty but It's going to suck being raised or called here.

[registrar]

I don't think a c-bet succeeds enough. This spot sucks , the more I think about it.

[Bond18]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, presumably any raise is a stack decision and presumably we're more likely to fold to the CR than the raise?

I quite like a CR here, for the simple and somewhat gay reason that I really don't want to be put to a decision for my stack. That feels a bit dirty but It's going to suck being raised or called here.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, thats such a 'thinking things through' cop out. Though i don't blame you, cause thinking through all the angles in this multi way pot at these stacks while playing 3-8 tables is not easy/fun.

I think as long as we know what we're doing with our bet depending on action behind its probably superior to the CRAI, as i don't think the CRAI folds any better hands or get much in the way of action from worse. If anything i think perhaps just cont betting might get more action from hands we beat but i highly doubt it changes much either way.

[registrar]

Yeah, it seems crap in the cold light of day. The one advantage is that I don't think that this is spot where we are happy to see the turn three way: if we bet and two opponents have an interest, we're priced in with what will almost certainly not be best hand.

I do think that 77 will fire at this pot and suited overs.

[Fiksdal]

Isn't there a lot of merit to checking this flop multiway?