Hand Analysis Requested - $5+$0.50 SnG (Pokerroom.com)

[scott cunningham]

I consider myself a beginner, and therefore feel more comfortable posting my requests for hand analysis to this section of the forum. If someone feels differently - that this is better suited somewhere else - I will switch. Also, thanks to Sheridan Cat for the excellent, patient analysis in my previous post about QTs from early position. I learned a lot from it. This is from a tournament I just played - a $5.50 NLH SnG on Pokerroom.com. I am changing everyone's names except for my own. Also, I have made some notes on this hand in a journal attached to my poker tracking software, and am attaching those notes to the bottom of this post. If anyone can help illuminate this hand for me - how it should optimally be played - I would greatly appreciate it. I will say that since this was the 3rd hand of the tournament, I knew very little at all about the other players, and so cannot tell you anything about the opponent in this hand.

***

Second or third hand of the SnG. I had tripled up in the previous hand, and have a chip stack of roughly T4500. As this is still so early, everyone else has approximately T1475-T1550. Blinds are 10/20.

ANTES/BLINDS
Person SB 24 posts blind ($10)
scunning posts blind ($20)
PRE-FLOP
UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
UTG+2 bets $200
UTG+3 folds
UTG+4 folds
UTG+5 folds
UTG+6 folds
UTG+7 folds
scunning calls $180
FLOP [board cards 3D,2C,AC ]
scunning bets $350
UTG+2 calls $350
TURN [board cards 3D,2C,AC,4C ]
scunning bets $500
UTG+2 bets $1,000 and is all-in
scunning bets $1,000
RIVER [board cards 3D,2C,AC,4C,AS ]
SHOWDOWN
scunning shows [ JS,AD ]
UTG+2 shows [ 4H,4D ]
scunning wins $500
UTG+2 wins $3,110

***
"This hand deserves careful attention. I had not seen enough of [this person] to say either way what his action meant when he raised from UTG+2 10xbb. It struck me as excessive, but excessive could mean AA/KK, and if so, then I'm in trouble since Ace is one of my outs. But I was holding an ace, so that does (in hindsight) make his aces less likely. Still, I did not think about his hand at all, and interpreted my cards as simply overcards, and thus was willing to make a gamble because of my chip stack.

Flop comes 3d2cAc, giving me top pair with a decent kicker. If he's got AA, I'm dead, and in retrospect, I did not consider at all that he may have had that. But 10xbb preflop is consistent with such large starting hands, as people routinely overbet those premium hands preflop (myself included) in these low stakes. So now I am wondering whether in the meta-game sense if calling here is wise. If I make my top pair, then what? I'm still vulnerable to AK and AA, which is entire consistent with such a big raise.

I decide to bet the flop the size of the pot, essentially gambling here because in retrospect, this play does not guarantee I had the best hand at all, because of my kicker and the set possibility. But like I said, I thought my ace-jack were overcards to a mid-pair he may have been holding (though, again, why I thought this isn't at all sensible, since I was operating off of a gut feeling than actual logic). So I bet, and [this person] calls it. That he only calls and does not raise me back is interesting - it was ultimately what I was trying to purchase by my raise. Does he have me outkicked? Does he have a set? That he does not reraise makes me think neither is true. After all, he's already shown a tendency to overbet preflop, so I would be surprised if he did not bet hard a flop if it hit him. So I conclude going into the turn that I have the best hand with my Top pair jack kicker. But what does he have? I have no idea, and because I turned my brain off at various points in this hand, did not have a read on him.

The four of clubs shows up on the turn, making a flush possibility and a straight possibility. I make it 500, which was under the pot if I remember correctly. I discounted both the flush and the straight, but cannot remember why. He went all-in and I called. Because I had him covered by 3:1 in chips even before this hand happened, I think I tended to cruise a little bit more than I normally do.

Turns out, he showed me 44. He'd called the flop because he was undeterred by the ace due to his straight draw. When the ace shows on the river, he makes a boat to my trips."

[twoakers]

UTG played this pretty poorly IMO. I wouldn't expect a huge hand from him based upon his 10x bb pre-flop raise. I'd more likely place him on something like 10-10, J-J or maybe Q-Q, simply because those hands are dangerous and he'd probably not feel too badly if he just won the pot right there. I wouldn't put him on a premium like AA or KK simply because a pre-flop bet that large has great potential to scare everyone away and win the blinds. Not that bad a deal with the hands I mentioned, but kind of a waste with AA or KK. Betting that large in EP with 4-4 is just plain wrong and will cost him $$ over the long haul. AK is possible, but I'd look at his overbet as showing a somewhat weak hand, rather than strong. Had you raised him pre-flop, you might have very well won it right then. Not saying that I would have, but it's an option. I think you played the rest of it corretly. After his all-in I would be pretty sure I was beaten, but at this point the pot odds say you have to call. He played the hand poorly, but got lucky. It happens.