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probability he has a Ax if . . .
-he calls 30% total
-he calls 100% -he doesn't reraise -an ace flops -i don't have an ace Here's my attempt: 1. p(Ax if i have no A and he calls 100%) = 100 - (46/50 x 45/49) = 16% 2. p(Ax if i have no A and he calls 100% pf and the flop is Axx) = 100 - (44/47 x 43/46) = 12% 3. p(Ax if i have no A and he calls 30% total) = 100(16/30) = 53% (should i have used bayes for 3?) 4. p(Axx flop if i have no A and he has Ax) = (3/48 x 45/47 x 44/46) x 3 = 16% 5. p(Axx flop if i have no A and he has no A) = p(4/48 x 44/47 x 43/46) x 3 = 22% so i'm using bayes to try to tie this up -- p (Ax given i have no A, he calls 30% total, he calls all Ax, the flop is Axx) = p (Axx flop given Ax) x p(Ax if i have no A and he calls 30% total)/p(Ax if i have no A) = (.16)(.53)/(.16) = 53% Is this a fluke? Does this make sense? |
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