50NL KK Makes Straight - But is it good?

[Cry Me A River]

Villain is a solid regular. 19.7/7.92/3.42 (500 hands).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($22.50)
Hero ($65.60)
MP1 ($51.90)
MP2 ($9.50)
MP3 ($32.30)
CO ($48.50)
Button ($9.25)
SB ($51.40)
BB ($45.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($12.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($12.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $9</font>, Hero calls $9.

River: ($30.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $33.5 (All-In)</font>, Hero...???

Preflop: I am def NOT 4-betting this, only thing he calls/pushes with is AA. I want to see a flop and try to extract TT-QQ/AK.

Flop: Horible flop, only hands I'm beating are JJ/AK. His check is odd. If he has AK, he could be dodging my checkraise. Or he could have AA and be afraid that I'm the one with a set. I think he would bet QQ/TT/99 expecting a checraise from my AA/KK. No? I think he bets AA as well, wouldn't he?

Turn: Well, now it gets interesting - If he checked a whiffed AK he now has the nuts. OTOH, I'm beating everything else. I check/call to give him the opportunity to bet his set or AA, if he has it. Given the likelyhood that I'm the one with AK, his calling range has to be pretty narrow unless he just can't fold sets (I really don't have enough of a read one way or the other there).

River: I check again because I still have a hard time seeing him calling with anything I beat. Maybe I should block? He's obv raising AK but maybe not anything else, unless he reads it as a blocking bet. I have seriously under-repped my hand throughout. I'm hoping he makes it easy on me by checking it through or betting small but of course he pushes.

Can I call?

[D.L.M.]

yeah bro, he surely doesnt put you on a striaght after your check call on the turn and check on the river, hes got a set here much of the time since he doesnt believe that you are a nitpuss check calling a straight. also the likely hood of him holding ak isnt a big issue.

insta call. and slap yourself when he shows you ak, then post the hand, then remember to not cry about it, but to be fly about it instead.

[pterodactyl_]

Haha, pretty sick spot. Call it and punch the wall.

[futuredoc85]

how many 50NL regs, solid or not, are capable of turning their set or overpair into a 2 street bluff here? this might actually be a fold

[D.L.M.]

they arent bluffing they think that they are value betting.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
how many 50NL regs, solid or not, are capable of turning their set or overpair into a 2 street bluff here? this might actually be a fold

[/ QUOTE ]

probably none of them, though I doubt there are too many spots where turning a set into a bluff is a good idea, and here there is only 1overpair

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

how many 50NL regs, solid or not, are capable of turning their set or overpair into a 2 street bluff here? this might actually be a fold


[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly my thought. If he has 99/TT/JJ/QQ/AA he's beating me unless I have a better set or a straight. Wouldn't he want a cheap showdown in case I can't fold 88/KK or am slowplaying AK? I've taken a very strange line for AK so he may be able to discount that, but, he has to count on me folding a straight for a PSB. Not a lot of $50NL players are folding 88/KK there.

I suppose he could put me on AQ or a small PP (?) but would he really want to turn a decent hand into a bluff? Or does he really see that as a value bet with QQ vs my AA/JJ/TT/99?

[DougieG]

This doesn't really look like a value bet and I'm not too far removed from 50NL. I was probably playing it a month ago after a horrible Feb. I would think that a regular's v-bet is less than pot here, maybe 15. It's not an easy board for you to c/r bluff and he knows that. Your hand is misrepresented to the point that I'm not sure what he puts you on. I think we are painted into calling since we misrepresented so much...

Sort of a spot where I don't put him on anything we beat but his line is fairly confusing also. It feels like Ak more than anything but he has NO idea what we have and that does open the door to a few bluffs and/or supposed value bets (this seems unlikely). When I'm this confused I tend to call (leak?)

[Cry Me A River]

The difficulty with this hand is the flop play.

Why doesn't villain cbet?

If he has QQ he should bet, hoping I CRAI with AA/KK or at least call him down.

If he has TT he should bet, hoping I CRAI with AA/KK or at least call him down.

If he has 99 he should bet, hoping I CRAI with AA/KK or at least call him down.

If he has AA, he may be worried I've flopped a set, however he's still prolly going to want to get it all in.

He may be slowplaying, particularly a set hoping I'll catch up with AK but that doesn't make a lot of sense given how wet the flop is and how many cards can kill his hand/action.

If he has AQ, he may be worried I've flopped a set or have an overpair. However, villains willing to 3-bet AQ generally aren't shy about betting it if they flop TPTK.

If he has AK he's going to be afraid of my overpair or set and he's likely done with the hand unless he improves. So he could check AK, particularly A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

If he has JJ he's going to be afraid of my overpair or set and he's likely done with the hand unless he improves. So he could check here too.

If he has KK he's going to hate the flop as much as I do, but I expect him to cbet to see where he's and hope to take it down before I draw out on him, ie with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I raised EP and villain is not particularly aggro. He may be 3-betting me light but it's unlikely. So he may have some PP&lt;99 or something like TJs. If he does then he may also be afraid of my set/overpair. But I think this unlikely.

So given villain's flop action, his most likely hands seem to be AK followed by JJ.

I folded btw, but getting 2:1 I like calling the more I think about it. I expect he has AK here an awful lot. The question is, does he have AA/QQ enough to make the call profitable?

I still don't know.

[CanSpoilU]

Sounds like AK to me