My * Post: All aboard

[_TKO_]

Once I hit Carpal Tunnel, I figured my title would never change, and I'd have no reason to ever write a milestone post again. However, I did manage to earn a new title, so I sat down and came up with the post below. It's going to be a long ride, so take your coat off, get comfortable, and let me collect your ticket; all aboard the train to value-town!

As a limit player who recently made the switch, the most amazing (and confounding) aspect of this exciting game was the discovery that I was no longer forced to make the same bet on every street. After a brief glance into big-bet literature, I determined that it would be correct to always bet the pot. However, after gaining experience with a wide variety of opponents in a plethora of situations, I can now show you that this is not the case.

While your bet size doesn't always need to be exactly the pot, it does depend on the size of the pot. Personally, I've seen many players make bet size errors in both games that are too big for them (i.e. betting the pot would be too much money) and games that are too small for them (i.e. betting the pot won't look intimidating enough). Neglecting the pot can lead you to make many mistakes.

Pot-sized bets are predominant on the flop and turn. The river in NL is big like LeAnn Rimes (because it's all about value), and preflop is more about implied odds than current pot odds.

But when to make pot-sized bets? Well, it's a good default play when you can't think of anything else. There may be times when you want to be raised, and either an overbet or underbet would be able to accomplish this better than a pot-sized bet. So, while a pot-sized bet is fairly standard, it may not always be the best play.

If your opponent doesn't understand the implications of your big bet, why invest so much? It's a very important consideration after sitting with the same opponents for some time. Also, you can press an edge by taking into account whether someone is playing with scared money or spare change. Your opponent may be willing to fold to smaller bets if he is playing scared (note that Harrington writes mostly tournament strategy, where players are generally playing more scared). In a 200NL game, $50 looks scary to a lot of players, even if the pot is $100 already. Conversely, $150 seems like nothing to other players, even if the pot is only $50.

Technically speaking, the range for correct bets would be c < b < f - where c is the point at which your opponent would be exactly correct to call, b is the size of your bet, and f is the point at which he would fold.

There are a lot of things to take into account when deciding how much to bet. However, as for any decision in poker, you are working with incomplete information. Remember that a value bet at any point must fall into the range (c, f). Anything out of this range falls into the category of deception, which has its associated cost and must be used wisely. Now, the hard part is to determine values for c and f. First, consider that there is always going to be a degree of error around either of these values, which is based on the predictability of a particular opponent, which is further based on your reads and, unfortunately, not much more.

If you knew nothing about your opponent or the cards he was holding, then a PSB is a pretty good option for the reasons already stated. On the other hand, if you knew everything about your opponent and his cards, then you should always bet just under f. Note that sometimes f < c and your opponent will never call unless it is correct for him to do so.

Deciding how much to bet in a big bet game is a tough decision; this is why many players simply avoid it by always betting the pot. To confidently stray from the PSB, you must have a strong grasp on both current and implied odds, the tendencies of your opponents and how they will react on future rounds, the size of yours and your opponents' stacks, and how often you will [not] be able to get away from your own hand on a future street.

I think the main argument behind defaulting to a PSB is to offer bad odds to draws, cause opponents to fold, and hide the strength of your hand, all at the same time. Of course, if you never stray from the PSB, then your strategy is probably not the best one.

<u>Examples:</u>

To simplify things, I'll assume that you a) are ahead; b) know your opponent is drawing; and c) will never pay off when he hits (i.e. implied odds don't come into consideration).

If your opponent holds a 12-out draw on the turn (e.g. flush + gutshot), he is 2.83:1 to improve by the river. If the pot is $100 and you bet $100, he will be getting 2:1 on his draw ($100 to win $200). You profit when he calls. If you bet $50, he profits by calling, getting 3:1 on his draw ($50 to win $150). You might be interested in the value for c in this case. To get that, divide $100 by (2.83 - 1), which gives you about $54.64. Therefore, the lowest you should bet here is $55, which happens to be just above ½ the pot. If f is lower than $55, then no profitable bet exists, unless you suspect he will bluff the river when he misses. Note that this example occurs on the turn, while the odds heavily favour a made hand.

Let's look at a flop example. For this example, I'll assume that you will not follow through with a bet on the turn, such that your opponent will end up seeing a free river (of course, he doesn't know this). Once again, you will not pay off the river. You hold 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] against villian's A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. The flop rolls out: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], so that he has a gutshot and one overcard (7 outs). For 7 outs flop to river, the odds are about 2.69:1. If the pot is $100, a $50 bet offers 3:1, while a $100 bet offers 2:1. The c value hire is $100/1.69 = ~$60 (rounded up).

This example seems to indicate that a PSB is usually way too high above the c-value. However, special considerations make this the case. Note that implied odds are not factored in. If you are more likely to pay off your opponent, then implied odds have a larger effect on your decision, which raises the c-value.

Say you have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a board of 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Your opponent holds Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], so he has 10 outs to a boat or quads, which requires 3.6:1. As usual, the pot is $100, so the c-value is 100/2.6 = ~$39. In the above conditions, either a $50 or $100 bet would be profitable. Let's now say that, having the nut flush, you will pay off the river. Say you have $200 in your stack, and villain has $80. If you bet $50, it will not be profitable for his to call if you would never pay off the river. However, if you will now pay off the river (after all, it's only $30 more and you have the nut flush), then technically there is an extra $30 in the pot. In this case, the pot (with implied bets included) is $100+$80 = $180. If you bet $50 now and let his see the river, then you will be offering his $180/$50 = 3.6:1 odds, which is exactly break-even. So, with implied odds included, the c-value is no longer $39, it's $50! In this case, you are much better off making a full PSB, so that he has to pay the full amount ($80) to draw on the river (we are assuming he'll fold if he misses).

As an extension of this last example, let us now assume that in the same spot on the turn, both you and your opponent have $200 effective stacks. This affects the implied odds a bit. Assuming you will never pay off the river, the c-value is $39, as shown above. But this doesn’t necessarily mean you should bet $39. Remember: c &lt; b &lt; f. With top set, most opponents are going to have a hard time folding this, so in this case, villain’s f-value will be high. Let’s say he will fold to any bet more than $400 in this spot. Well, since you have only $200 to bet, you have a clear opening to stack your opponent. This should illustrate two points: 1) most players leave too much value on the table when they underestimate an opponent’s f-value; and 2) when stacks are large in relation to the pot, pushing is often way above your opponent’s f-value, which means that you lose value by betting too much.

In general: An increased c-value makes a PSB better than a 1/2P bet. On the other hand, a decreased f-value will make a 1/2P bet better than a PSB.

- Passive players have low c-values.
- Aggressive players have high c-values.
- Tight players have low f-values.
- Loose players have high f-values.

You should be able to use those simple rules to guide you on how much to bet in relation to the pot. Generally, if the table is tight, you will be better off defaulting to a 1/2-3/4PSB than a full PSB; if the table is loose, you will be better off defaulting to a full PSB.

Remember: There is a range for “correct” bet sizes in NL holdem: every bet must be within the range (c, f). If you consistently bet below c, then your opponents are given correct odds to draw, and you lose money immediately. If you consistently bet above f, then you aren’t getting proper value on your hands.

So, you’ve learned that you need to bet at least c, but not bigger than f. There are two more points to add before I go. The first is that there will certainly be cases where f is less than c, and there exists no correct bet size to get value from your hand. This doesn’t mean checking is correct. All it means is that you should probably bet and move on to the next hand, especially when your hand is mediocre. This leads me to my final point. Sometimes the range between c and f will be extremely small. You will usually make the hand easier to play by “incorrectly” betting an amount that will get your opponent to fold, and you don’t lose a lot by doing so. If you consistently check in these situations, you will probably end up giving away pots. Don’t do this.

Anyway, this has been a long post, so I look forward to your comments.

[gir]

Neato! I'm going to a need a re-synopsis on the c and f thing and which players do what...I'll reread tomorrow. Besides that, I have to say, I didn't think I was going to learn anything...Fortunately, I was wrong. Good stuff and thanks!

[gir]

[ QUOTE ]

In general: An increased c-value makes a PSB better than a 1/2P bet. On the other hand, a decreased f-value will make a 1/2P bet better than a PSB.

- Passive players have low c-values.
- Aggressive players have high c-values.
- Tight players have low f-values.
- Loose players have high f-values.

You should be able to use those simple rules to guide you on how much to bet in relation to the pot. Generally, if the table is tight, you will be better off defaulting to a 1/2-3/4PSB than a full PSB; if the table is loose, you will be better off defaulting to a full PSB.


[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give an example for one or two of these types of players please? I can't see the numbers in my head of what these mean. (Sorry, I'm a highly visual learner.)

[Symbolic]

This is really good stuff. Thanks