Good value betting or spew?

[DanJ.]

Villain is 57/27/2.5

His stats went to showdown stats and fold to flop bet/turn/etc dont indicate that he is a complete calling station, but i have seen him make some really terrible calls against me.

Yesterday he called All in with A high no draw on 995 flop in a RR pot.

The last hand i played with this guy he limp/called utg, called my bet on the T 7 3 flop, called again on the J turn and checked behind on the blank river with 22 and beat my AK.

anywho here is the hand.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1306.53
CO: $522.40
Button: $804
SB: $436.50
Hero: $1075.07

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $33</font>, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($99, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $72</font>, UTG calls, SB folds.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($243, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $156</font>, UTG calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($555, 2 players)
Hero checks,

[kylephilly]

Push river

[staring_elf]

[ QUOTE ]
Push river

[/ QUOTE ]

wronnnnnnggg.

flop is fine.
if you're gonna bet turn, and i would, you need to make it closer to a pot size bet. this guy will call all day to hit a flush draw and he's prob not folding an A for a bet so weak looking on the turn, especially with those stats - nobody plays 57/27 without a little bit of calling station in them.

check on river is fine. he'll check behind an ace and if he bets he almost definitly has the flush. can't really see what else he's calling 2 streets with. i think you're beat here and i think giving up is better than pushing or even betting at all. this isn't a 3barrel board and betting the river against a guy like that is prob spew i think

[jj12]

who likes a c/f on turn to decent size bet?

[sh0wtime]

Is the turn bet for value (I hope)?

EDIT: Just read the title. Nvm, I'm not here.

[staring_elf]

[ QUOTE ]
who likes a c/f on turn to decent size bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a perfect board for a double barrel. i think he has a weaker ace that you might be able to get him off or a flush draw you can get him off by making a big turn bet.

or he's floated with some kind of middle pair/ other draw and will fold to pressure. i hate a turn c/f, even with the A out there

[sh0wtime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
who likes a c/f on turn to decent size bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a perfect board for a double barrel. i think he has a weaker ace that you might be able to get him off or a flush draw you can get him off by making a big turn bet.

or he's floated with some kind of middle pair/ other draw and will fold to pressure. i hate a turn c/f, even with the A out there

[/ QUOTE ]

OP made it pretty clear that villain doesn't fold. And he's certainly not folding any kind of an ace here.

[DanJ.]

there is no way in the world that this guy is going to fold TP, but thing is i dont think he folds 9x/6x/87/[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/any pocket pair.

[staring_elf]

[ QUOTE ]

OP made it pretty clear that villain doesn't fold. And he's certainly not folding any kind of an ace here.

[/ QUOTE ]

well he said he's not a complete calling station, despite his stats. so thats one reason to bet.

also, i hate giving a free card here for him to either catch his draw, and that board is very drawy, or bluff us off the best hand by repping a made draw when we check the river to him when a spade or T or whatever hits.

and if he doesn't have an A, but does have a 9 or something, which is very possible, we get value out of him if he calls.

[RiverHebrew2]

I love your raise size. WTF is UTG c/c two streets with? Prob somethin like some middle suited connector where he picked up an FD, Axss maybe, or like 78s which checks behind the riv neway. Don't even bother callin a riv bet. I like the playing of this hand b/c an A is fairly unlikely. Most people fold or raise AT or AJ UTG, and people fold almost all other lower Aces there, unless its axs, which i said is possibly limped here. 78 has the OESD, but more likely theres a good chance he has something like JTss, which is why he called such a big turn bet. IMO, he's never bluffing this river, but I think you had a decent shot of knocking him out of the hand. If you wunna RELE make him fold, I'd probably bet the turn for like $215, tho that can be borderline spewiness. BTW, you're not betting for value since a lone 9 doesn't call you down two streets in a row unless the guy's an idiot. You're protecting ur hand against all the draws out there or folding out weak aces, b/c your line is very strong. C/c turn is ok with the intention of c/c a blank river.