NL50, laydown the set of Queens?

mAkCQRE · #1 04-11-2007, 10:16 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($50)
Hero ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, CO calls $4.

Flop: ($12.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $12, CO calls $12.

Turn: ($36.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets $32 (All-In), Hero ...?

villain is 12.8 / 6.9 / 3.0 / 500

does he ever do this with tens or jacks? easy laydown right?

goat_beard · #2 04-11-2007, 10:23 AM

raise to $8 pf...bet the pot on flop...call the turn shove

hoody66 · #3 04-11-2007, 10:38 AM

im not sure he had the King, he usally have just AQ JJ 1010 or just an A-x, and you still have 9 outs to drawing full. i ithink it was just an agressive deffendig. cuz he did know you dont have the King, cuz you shown strength after the flop!

JPeezy55 · #4 04-11-2007, 10:53 AM

Tough spot. You're getting 2 to 1 here though -- even without your 9 outs to drawing full I think you see two pair (this smells ot QJ/JT) enough to make it +EV.

TheRenaissance · #5 04-11-2007, 11:16 AM

Some bad reads in this thread.
Villain NEVER has two pair here.

His range is heavily weighted towards TT/JJ and AK, as AA/KK usually repop preflop oop, and he'll fold anything else. There are more combinations of AK then JJ/TT, and I doubt a guy with these nitty stats would shove turn a lot without a king.

A fold is good IMO.
(and I never fold sets)

Edit: unless hero had some sick lag image and had 3bet the last 500 hands

EMc · #6 04-11-2007, 11:22 AM

Id rather not fold here. Im calling here, there is a lot you beat here, a little you are behind, and if you are behind you have outs to fill up.

Fiksdal · #7 04-11-2007, 11:27 AM

I see AK as a pretty big part of villains range here, fitting his play on all streets. KQ is also possible, as well ass AJ/AQ.

evazan · #8 04-11-2007, 11:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Some bad reads in this thread.
Villain NEVER has two pair here.

His range is heavily weighted towards TT/JJ and AK, as AA/KK usually repop preflop oop, and he'll fold anything else. There are more combinations of AK then JJ/TT, and I doubt a guy with these nitty stats would shove turn a lot without a king.

A fold is good IMO.
(and I never fold sets)

Edit: unless hero had some sick lag image and had 3bet the last 500 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your giving the villain too tight of a range here. He is just as likely to have AQ as he is AK and 10/10 and JJ are very strong possibilities too. From his post flop play it is tough to put him on AK though. Most people don't slow play in 3 bet pots and then why would he open push the turn when I scare card comes out? Given this and the fact you have 9 outs if you are against a King I call.

barryc83 · #9 04-11-2007, 11:30 AM

I honestly think this is a fold. This guys a grade a nit, no doubt about it. I just dont see what a nit would push there w/o a K.

TheRenaissance · #10 04-11-2007, 11:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Id rather not fold here. Im calling here, there is a lot you beat here, a little you are behind, and if you are behind you have outs to fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let us do some handreading together:
Mr VPIP12.8 calls 3bets preflop with
22-AA, AK, agree?
What hands does he call a potsized bet on the flop with?
JJ,TT,AK,AA,KK.
On the turn, what hands will he shove with?
JJ,TT,AK,AA,KK.

We will be behind a lot IMO, and he is virtually never bluffing unless he is tilting badly or has some history with hero. I really have trouble coming up with a LOT of hands we beat.