50nl: KK on Q T J flop

[AndreasQ]

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
5 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
<u>SB: $50.20</u>
<u>Hero (BB): $53.80</u>
UTG: $50
CO: $49.25
BTN: $162.23

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($0.75, 5 Players)
UTG folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $3</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9</font>, CO folds, SB calls $6

<font color="black">Flop:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($18.50, 2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="red">SB goes all-in for $40.95</font>, Hero ?

SB is new at the table.

[Jestli]

thats tough but it seems like flopped a set or has AK

[vozzie]

You have 10 outs here (4A, 4 nines,2K). So you get pot odds. I'd call this.

[sightless]

Question: is this flop always a must bet?

[MusashiStyle]

I'm guessing ur up against at least 2 pair here. AQ is pretty unlikely. He could have Kq in which case u r in great shape. However that's less likely than qj,qt, or a set or str8. Seems pretty close between calling and folding and I don't think either one is terrible but calling seems better because u do have nut str8 draw and of course 2 outs for a bigger set if he does indeed have u beat.

[Atlanta Andrew]

I think you have to fold here. You'll see AK or a set a huge portion of the time.

Also, I'm not sure about the flop bet. What does it accomplish?

-Andrew

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 10 outs here (4A, 4 nines,2K).

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, this is way off.

-Andrew

[MusashiStyle]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to fold here. You'll see AK or a set a huge portion of the time.

Also, I'm not sure about the flop bet. What does it accomplish?

-Andrew

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is fairly accurate however, we have $9 dollars in preflop and $15 in on the flop so that's $24 = half our stack. Folding is completely wrong. If u don't see why u r crazy.

[C4LL4W4Y]

I don't think the flop is a must-bet, but this is a pretty good flop for KK.

After the CRAI I think we have to put this guy on a range of 99-AA (AA being least likely), AK.

Hero's getting 3-1 on his money, which puts him in good shape vs everything but AK. As played I think it's a call.

edit: I don't have pokerstove on my work computer but I'd like to see the numbers for that range, if someone would oblige.

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to fold here. You'll see AK or a set a huge portion of the time.

Also, I'm not sure about the flop bet. What does it accomplish?

-Andrew

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is fairly accurate however, we have $9 dollars in preflop and $15 in on the flop so that's $24 = half our stack. Folding is completely wrong. If u don't see why u r crazy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? You said in your first post that it's a close decision, and now you say that folding is crazy?

Anyway...hero needs to win the hand about 25% of the time to break even. That's $75 in the pot to $26 call, or a bit less than 3 - 1.

So do we really expect hero to win this hand a quarter of the time? How many outs does hero have? How many outs does hero have if unknown villain's range is standard for calling a big pre-flop re-raise (TT+, AK), factoring in tainted and split outs. You put hands like KQ and QT in villain's range in your first post, but this is completely wrong, imo...especially after villain pushes.

I think 25% equity is very optimistic for hero in this spot and see nothing wrong with a fold.

And no, I'm not crazy. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

-Andrew