25 NL- Value bet 2 pair on river?

[youthies]

Villain is 42/5/1.2 over 200 hands, with a river AF of .8
Do I bet the river here?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($7.30)
CO ($46.21)
Button ($25.70)
SB ($9.21)
Hero ($28.13)
UTG ($23.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, MP folds, CO calls $1, SB folds.

Turn: ($3) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, CO calls $3.

River: ($9) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

[jmgambler]

Hero Bets $4..... But I really think he will fold the busted Fl draw

[21SuicideKing21]

Bet around 5 to 6 here, try and get some value out of your hand, probably has a busted flush draw, might have a weak ace or even middle pair.

[youthies]

but if he probably has a busted draw, shouldn't this be a check to let him try a bluff?

[rakes.a.beach]

[ QUOTE ]
but if he probably has a busted draw, shouldn't this be a check to let him try a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mind betting here. lets just bet. 25NL don't really bluff miss draws.

[jmgambler]

[ QUOTE ]
but if he probably has a busted draw, shouldn't this be a check to let him try a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was a guess, but he could just as easily have A rag.....I would make the VB even if I thought this, if he has got any callable hand he will call it anyway, weighing the pros and cons of eliciting a river bluff bet and getting paid off by a weaker 2pr or A I will always go for the VB

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
but if he probably has a busted draw, shouldn't this be a check to let him try a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take this line vs an more aggro villain...This villain does not seem to be aggro enough to induce a bluff...I think vs this villain your best bet is to make a small $6 VB and hope he's been calling down with a weak made hand..