How does Daniel Negreanu make money? (MTT strategy)

[Paul B.]

From his CardPlayer article:
[ QUOTE ]
I answered a hypothetical question a while back that went something like this: Let’s say you are in the WSOP main event, and on the very first hand dealt, you have A-K offsuit in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind, who exposes his cards to you and goes all in with Q-J suited. Would you call?

You should — seriously. You would win the pot 60 percent of the time, meaning that six out of 10 times, you’d start the tournament with twice as many chips, while four times, you’d be out early and could enjoy the rest of the afternoon! That is too good an offer to pass up. You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation, but 60 percent is just too much equity for any mortal to give up.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is massively -EV in the long run. How does he make money?

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
From his CardPlayer article:
[ QUOTE ]
I answered a hypothetical question a while back that went something like this: Let’s say you are in the WSOP main event, and on the very first hand dealt, you have A-K offsuit in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind, who exposes his cards to you and goes all in with Q-J suited. Would you call?

You should — seriously. You would win the pot 60 percent of the time, meaning that six out of 10 times, you’d start the tournament with twice as many chips, while four times, you’d be out early and could enjoy the rest of the afternoon! That is too good an offer to pass up. You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation, but 60 percent is just too much equity for any mortal to give up.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is massively -EV in the long run. How does he make money?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably by knowing the correct definition of 'EV', which is clearly different than whatever you think it is.

[Parlay Slow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
From his CardPlayer article:
[ QUOTE ]
I answered a hypothetical question a while back that went something like this: Let’s say you are in the WSOP main event, and on the very first hand dealt, you have A-K offsuit in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind, who exposes his cards to you and goes all in with Q-J suited. Would you call?

You should — seriously. You would win the pot 60 percent of the time, meaning that six out of 10 times, you’d start the tournament with twice as many chips, while four times, you’d be out early and could enjoy the rest of the afternoon! That is too good an offer to pass up. You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation, but 60 percent is just too much equity for any mortal to give up.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is massively -EV in the long run. How does he make money?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably by knowing the correct definition of 'EV', which is clearly different than whatever you think it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

[sweetjazz]

I think (hope) the OP is referring to passing on the 55% gamble, not taking the 60% gamble.

The WSOP structure is a bit unique and has relatively slowly escalating blinds. So I guess it is possible that you can profitably pass up a 55% edge early on, but I am skeptical.

Matt Matros did a rough analysis of this topic in one of his cardplayer articles, iirc.

[Riverman]

Most every top player who I have seen weigh in on this other than Hellmuth agrees with Daniel including Paul Phillips, Fossilman, Barry Greenstein, and others. I don't know if there is a "right" answer or not, but I'm inclined to think the aforementioned players know what they are talking about.

[Zele]

What edge are you waiting for, and how do you intend to achieve it without seeing opponents' cards or having the nuts?

[JackCase]

[ QUOTE ]
From his CardPlayer article:
[ QUOTE ]

You should — seriously. You would win the pot 60 percent of the time, meaning that six out of 10 times, you’d start the tournament with twice as many chips, while four times, you’d be out early and could enjoy the rest of the afternoon! That is too good an offer to pass up. You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation, but 60 percent is just too much equity for any mortal to give up.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is massively -EV in the long run. How does he make money?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are obviously missing something here. You apparently don't understand what "+EV" means, or don't understand how to play MMTs.

Quotes below from an old thread on this subject:

Greg Raymer:

[ QUOTE ]
TONS of big name players busted out on day 1 of the WSOP this year (well, day 1 and 2, because of the split field, but you know what I mean). And if you knowingly pass up a 60:40 opportunity, you're not a top player.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[/ QUOTE ]

Paul Phillips:

[ QUOTE ]
I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Paul B.]

Well, I certainly got schooled.

I thought for sure that getting knocked out 40% of the time in the first hand would be -EV, since having double the starting stack doesn't necessarily make it SO MUCH more likely that you'll win (place ITM).

[Pov]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I certainly got schooled.

I thought for sure that getting knocked out 40% of the time in the first hand would be -EV, since having double the starting stack doesn't necessarily make it SO MUCH more likely that you'll win (place ITM).

[/ QUOTE ]

It definitely doesn't make it all that much more likely in a large field, but consistently folding as a 60/40 favorite when faced with aggression doesn't do much for your chances either. You can't fold your way to the money and even in a slow structure you don't get that many chances to get your money in as a significant favorite. You have to take it when you can or you're just relying on great run of cards.

Correctly estimating you have an edge (and fold equity can be a part of that) and then having the balls to get your money in IS tournament skill.

[whiskeytown]

remember, a double up at this stage usually buys you a bad mistake or rundown or two... -

I have found whenever I take an early double up I can usually milk the momentum for quite a while - I can call stacks of $500 with AJ and risk being dominated cause I've earned some extra staying power...

I'd have to ask some WSOP powerhouses - (Greg?) - but I would suspect an early double-up at the WSOP would more then pay for itself in the extra confidence and aggression you can then purchase for yourself each hand you play...

I'd have a hard time doing it the first time I played the WSOP - but if I saw that after doing it a couple years, I'd make the call - I AM the fav....after all -

Every time you flip those cards over and you're a 60% fav...you played the hand correctly - even if you lose - you made the right play - took me a long time to get that in my head.

RB