Sanjaya Props on Bodog

[thing85]

Bet On: Will American Idol 6 contestant Sanjaya Malakar finish in the top 5?

Yes +200
No -300

There is also one regarding his hair style, but there is obviously no value in any of that unless we get a spoiler about it.

I'm not sure if the first bet (finishing in top 5 or not) has value, but it may. Let's look at the remaining contestants:

1) Melinda
2) Blake
3) Jordin
4) Lakisha
5) Sanjaya
6) Gina
7) Chris R
8) Haley
9) Phil

It seems very likely that both Haley and Phil will exit before Sanjaya. So really, this nearly becomes a LL bet with Sanajaya vs. Chris R and Gina. We're getting +200 here, so he needs to beat them at least 33% of the time for this to be +EV.

Conversely, one of them needs to beat him at least 75% of the time for the "no" to be +EV.

I think if either of there have value, it'd have to be the "yes." I'm not going to play this one yet until I hear some further discussion.

[smbruin22]

i think i'd play the "yes" too... i'd look for sanjaya to finish 4th. blake, melinda and one of lakisha/jordin ahead of him. maybe even 3rd.

[LBK]

Sanjaya 6th? F%ck, he's winning this damn thing.

[mynamewastaken]

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i think i'd play the "yes" too... i'd look for sanjaya to finish 4th. blake, melinda and one of lakisha/jordin ahead of him. maybe even 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be giving Sanjaya more credit than he deserves. I doubt he does better than Scott Savol.

I actually think +200 is a little generous for top 5. Seems like a better deal than the Sanjaya pinny props I posted in another thread. Thanks for the heads up!

[Caldarooni]

Sanjaya is a lock for the top 5. Some of you guys still dont get it.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
Sanjaya is a lock for the top 5. Some of you guys still dont get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we don't know the true vote totals for sure, how can you call him a lock? What if last week he just missed the cut for the B3? Aside from all the hype he's getting, there's no substantial evidence to pinpoint where he stands in the competition, or more important, if he's going out in the top 5.

Granted, I think he makes the top 5 (and goes out as #5). But by no means is this a lock.

[pokerplayer28]

He's definately better than 33% to make top 5, but I dont think its enough to tie up your money for 3-4 weeks. Of course bodog has rediculous max bets so youre not tying up much.

As I type this the No -150 is now the better option

[thing85]

Yeah, I'd say this is a no play now. The Yes is only +110 and and the No is -150.

If anything, I'd bet No, but I'm staying away from it all together now.

[GrannyMae]

i like no, but the odds are too long.

[GrannyMae]

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i like no, but the odds are too long.

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i was responding to the -300 prop. i like the no at -150