NL50 - Set vs. possible flush

[dirtylobster]

Villain is 62/25/2 over 50 hands.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $31.90
BB: $36.30
UTG: $53.70
<font color="black">HERO (MP): $52.50</font>
CO: $29.85
BTN: $57.65

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($0.75, 6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, HERO calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($7.25, 4 Players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">HERO bets $4.85</font>, CO calls $4.85, BB folds, UTG folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($16.95, 2 Players)
HERO checks, <font color="red">CO bets $13</font>, HERO calls $13

<font color="black">River:</font> J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($42.95, 2 Players)
HERO checks, CO checks

Pot Size: $42.95 ($2.10 Rake)

Would you bet the turn? Or would you check/fold?

I'm wondering if it could be EV+ to call this, considering the villain seems pretty incompetent. I would have folded to a substantial river bet.

[StallionDL]

I'd bet 2/3 pot on the turn

[danicalifornia]

Preflop is fine. Bet more on the flop.
I would check the turn as you have outs to a full house and dont want to throw your hand away to a raise. As played, the river check is fine. I would never call a bet in this spot

[Kimo White Devil]

If you bet turn and he calls, you will have to check any 6,4,9, clubs, then he can bully you on the river. Check turn is good. Not sure the call is good though with his numbers, Id prolly raise All-in and make the "fold or pair the board" dance.

[StallionDL]

IMO checking this turn OOP is just inviting the villain to steal the pot. Betting gives him the opportunity to fold a draw or chase with bad odds and avoids giving a free card to a hand that hasn't gotten there yet. It's dangerous to always assume that your opponent has the worst possible hand.

[theRoot]

I think folding without a solid read is not an option here. Your hand is simply too strong. Having that said, raising is better than calling, in my opinion.

He could have various reasons to bet the turn with a hand worse than a set of 5's: Flush draws, straight draws, weak made hands with said draws, possibly even two pair. He probably reads you as being afraid of the third club. This can be a strong incentive for him to bet the turn.
On the other hand, he could have the flush. He could also have a higher set.
My guestimate is you need to be 50% sure you have the best hand on the turn, or better (the outs will probably cancel each other out, more or less). My second guestimate is that you'll probably do better than 50%.

Now if you figure you'll have the best hand half the time (or more), you should raise. Your opponent will be priced in with a flushdraw and he might not be able to lay down weaker hands. Also, you can't be bluffed out of the pot on the river.