Stars 20/180 FT - Push or Fold?

Vedocorban · #1 03-22-2007, 01:54 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t28455)
UTG+1 (t25930)
MP1 (t9960)
MP2 (t25094)
CO (t33733)
Button (t10236)
Hero (t34618)
BB (t101974)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, CO raises to t6000, Button raises to t10136 and is all-in.

CO has definitely been aggressive with a wide range of hands, especially in LP. Button has been fairly queiet and, while desperate, has an entire orbit to find a spot with first-in vigorish.

ItalianFX · #2 03-22-2007, 02:04 PM

19136/9136 = 2.09:1

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.127% 27.33% 04.79% 24378273 4274260.67 { AQs }
Hand 1: 28.088% 26.46% 01.63% 23598150 1452277.17 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 2: 39.785% 35.52% 04.27% 31677515 3805229.17 { 77+, AJs+, AJo+ }

These ranges may be too loose.

We have to worry about CO waking up with a big hand. If we call and CO pushes, what do we do? If we call and CO calls, now we are playing for our stacks. It's a really tough situation.

I think Fold > Push > Call

DeuceSeven · #3 03-22-2007, 02:38 PM

You can't call here. If you push CO if probably going to call as he's getting about 3:1. If Button hadn't shoved, I would certainly shove. When I shove with AQ, I'd really like hands like JJ-88 go away which adds to your EV. As played I fold and open with almost ATC on the button on the next hand.

glass_onion · #4 03-22-2007, 04:33 PM

I don't see folding here ever. You've identified him as active if not aggressive, so 3xbb bet from CO means, what, top 20-30%? Smallstack is irrelevant. You've got tons of FE against CO.

I'd love to hear a reasoned arguement for not pushing this. Seems perfect.

ItalianFX · #5 03-22-2007, 04:57 PM

Why do you say the small stack is irrelevant? If he is on the BTN right now, doesn't HAVE to put in any chips, M of 5, he's likely holding a good hand to push over a raise. He may see the CO as aggressive and be doing this with QJ, but into any PP we are going in behind.

holdemft · #6 03-22-2007, 05:14 PM

Push, you can get CO to fold with lots of FE, and there'll be plenty of dead money in the pot. I don't think this is a very difficult decision. If CO does have a big hand, so be it. If you fold this you're not playing to win, you're playing to not lose.