200/400 stud8 how a donkey justifies showing down AK

[TStoneMBD]

on 3rd street i got confused. i said raise as a steal and then i realized villain brought it in for a full bet so i was stuck. fortunately villain didnt see that i didnt realize this. villain plays good.

4-COMPLETEBRINGIN-call
A5-Q-Raise
Q-fold
J-fold

49-call
A5-QK-bet

495-call
A5-QK9-bet

4958-BET
A5-QK9T-check-call

4958x-BET
A5-QK9T3-check-call

i thought once i got myself into this mess i should just play it like i actually have something. my equity gets bad on later streets but i think im still justified in continuing. i think 6th is really close though and im quite confused as to what the correct play is at this point.

on 6th, if he has a low then i have close to 1/3 pot equity and if he has a pair and a low draw i only have like 20% equity. still, im getting 9:1 to call the turn so even though i have reverse implied odds i think the call is correct.

also, i didnt think hed bet 6th with a pair plus low draw because hes not supposed to so when he bets i expect him to have a made low no pair with the odd chance of a straight. this means my equity is near 33% and im getting 10:2 on the call when accounting for the river bet i have to call.

btw i want to thank the forum. you guys have helped improve my game a ton from your comments in my threads.

[Johnny#5]

If you want to continue with AK high here (and, the way the hand has been played, I think it's a good idea) I think you might actually be better off betting 6th instead of check calling it. The way I see it:

- Given your aggression and your scary board he has to give you credit for a decent high hand. Betting 6th represents to him that you're not scared of some random two pair. Thus, if he raises 6th, you can put him pretty squarely on a made low no pair and can call down accordingly.

-If he just calls your 6th street you can put him on a pair + low draw and you set up a profitable (IMO) bluff opportunity on 7th where he will be hard-pressed to call you with one little pair if he catches a TJQK. If he raises you will have to fold but you spent the same 2 bets you would have anyway and got the same info. That's if you don't pair of course, if you do then you can check-call the river.

-Playing this hand this way would probably be better metagame-wise in nosebleed games than check-calling down AK high IMO.

Interesting hand, surprised there isn't more discussion on it.

[*TT*]

I like 4th street, stone cold. I'd give up on 5th. Since you didn't, I check-call 6th just like you did.

[HOWMANY]

This is a tough hand [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I don't think you can give up fourth because all he has to do is brick 1 more time for this decent sized pot to be ours. I want to say give up on 5th. On 6th I don't know if he'd bet pair+low draw here since you should have Queens, and if villain plays good he knows he's not a favorite, but he might still bet to disguise his hand. Once you get to the river you can't fold. There aren't many spots to fold 6th when you actually have a hand, maybe this is a spot we should.

If there's a place to fold it's either 5th or 6th. I don't know which.

*edit*
I think 5th you should probably give up now that I thought some more. You have a 5, so it's slightly less likely the 5 paired him, and he is committed to see the river with his low draw.

[Johnny#5]

If you check 6th with the intention of calling a bet, but the villain checks behind instead, are you donk bluffing the river? It's a disaster if 6th and 7th go check/check check/check and villain wins with a pair of 5s, is it not?

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check 6th with the intention of calling a bet, but the villain checks behind instead, are you donk bluffing the river? It's a disaster if 6th and 7th go check/check check/check and villain wins with a pair of 5s, is it not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question, I think the villain is a favorite to improve here vs his likely hand range so its not a disaster.

[HOWMANY]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check 6th with the intention of calling a bet, but the villain checks behind instead, are you donk bluffing the river? It's a disaster if 6th and 7th go check/check check/check and villain wins with a pair of 5s, is it not?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the answer to this depends on size of the pot and the odds of villain improving to 2 pair or better or a low. I don't know the answer to that, but I do know the couple of times I've been in a spot like this I have bet.

[Johnny#5]

Here's some quick numbers:

Known cards: 14
Babies/aces: 7 (assuming villain has 2 in the hole)
Nines: 2
TJQK's: 5

Remaining cards in the deck: 38

Chance villain will draw a bad card (TJQK) on 7th is (16-5)/38 = 29%.

TStone says there are 8 BBs in the pot after 5th street so a river bluff would be laying villain 9:1. Assuming villain has a pair+low draw on 6th he will brick off 29% of the time. We lose every time on the river if we don't pair.

If he calls/raises we lose 1 bet, if he folds we win 8. We need him to fold 1/9 of the time for our bet to be neutral EV. If he folds .111/.29 = 38% of the time he has one pair we break even.

Are we getting good enough odds to bluff here? Discuss.

[Micturition Man]

I'm sort of losing the thread of this convo, but if you are talking about "should I bluff the river if I bet 6th and he calls" the answer is absolutely yes.

He will surely fold one pair here and quite possibly two.

[TStoneMBD]

johnny i think youve really added alot to this thread so far. i think you might be right about betting 6th but im not sure, its close. im very interested in this idea.

as for the river, it needs to be bet if villain checks 6th. if villain checks the turn there are 8 bets in the pot and villain will catch a T-J on the river 30% of the time without considering dead cards which means our equity in a river bet is 30% of 8BBs which is 2.4. not betting this river would be about a 1.4BB mistake.