River Bluff, good 1/3 of the time?

[Roadstar]

Villain is LAG with unreasonably large preflop raises. At best his range is 22-JJ AJ-AK QJ, KQ. He's the type to actually slowplay AA/KK.

Paradise Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $6.75
CO: $40.00
Button: $98.95
Hero: $232.65
BB: $29.35

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG, folds, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $6.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $19</font>, 2 folds, Button calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($40, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $22</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($84, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($84, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $57</font>

Is this good? $57 is approx how much villain has left.

Preflop reraise.. maybe even bigger?

Flop Cbet extra standard. Turn I was about to give up but check check really shows a weak hand from villain, probably ace face or 33,99 type. I could be slowplayed I guess.

The turn check check makes me think hes got A hi, so I want to bluff out AK and taking it down w/ AK although its an unecessary bet against AQ/AJ. Dunno if I can get TT/JJ to fold.

Thoughts?

[JohnAndersen]

if he is lag and plays a lot of hands that river card is gross and hits a lot of potential holdings that he would call the flop with. Even if this card doesnt hit him, I am not sure you are folding TT or JJ with this bet, I would rather fire a second barrel on the turn since it was a non heart

[barryc83]

I personally dont like it as I think he calls with any pair. These donks put you on AK everytime, its cliche but true. Also, sometimes if hes really that bad, hell bet like $5 or something small and youll call and beat his JT.

[FishSticks]

Yah if you want to bluff do it on the turn. What big hand are you really checking turn the pushing the river flush card with?

[runningirl07]

Yah you would never check a big hand on this board because its very draw heavy. I don't think this is a good board to bluff with ak on. I think hes calling you with a pair here everytime, your play looks very suspicious

[eviljeff]

let it go after the flop. in general you have a ton of fold equity in rr pots, so if he calls you really have to put on the brakes. I wouldn't mind this play vs a weak tighty who thinks you could have anything and could talk himself into folding, but I def don't do this vs a lag.

also, I don't understand the title of this thread. he has to fold a better hand here a little more than 1/3 of the time for this to be correct.