first hand: Aces Killer

[Cablelessray]

first hand of a live tournament, with a good structure and a deep field. (for the sake of argument, you didn't come to the casino JUST for the tourney and you are a regular live game/ tournament player)

you are in the BB with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG raises, and 3 people go all in behind. the rest fold.

is this not a good call?

online i would fold, but i did some rough calculations assuming their collective ranges are JJ+/AKs/AK and it looks like 20% against 5 people and 25% against 4 people (i'm in communist china, can't DL a odds calculator or use an online one [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]). and if you lose you can go play cash, if you win you have 4 or 5 times the chips (depending on action of UTG)

If noone has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] you have 21%/26% [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[kniper]

if your strat is to go big or go home, i guess you can call. obviously you can find a better spot though

[Cablelessray]

what i'm asking is if the even money chance to have 4x or 5x the chips, knowing it's not a "go home situation" is actually +EV over an eternity of poker. just wondering if this falls into "stupid", "wreckless" or the "playing for first" mantre.

[reecelights]

You have close to the correct equity to call, but just having 5x the starting stack doesn't convince me. I do think this is reckless, and if you're willing to play that way on teh first hand, do you significantly tighten up or donk the chips right back off?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,094,467 games 22.279 secs 138,896 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.858% 19.20% 00.17% 594111 5255.80 { 7s6s }
Hand 1: 20.621% 19.84% 01.34% 613996 41417.88 { 77+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 19.998% 18.89% 01.65% 584602 50992.88 { TT+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 24.213% 22.93% 01.94% 709468 60113.05 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 4: 16.310% 15.90% 00.86% 491867 26534.38 { 22+, A9s+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo+ }

[Cablelessray]

lol, i guess you mean if i call here i must be a donk who'll throw the chips away anyway?

if you take away the cards, the root of my question is a comment a friend made, saying would i pay the same as everyone else in a tourney to have a coin flip (a literal one before the start of a tourney) to start the tourney with 2x chips, assuming that i may also just not be able to play if i lose the toss. seeing as i assume most players including myself play better with a stack, not just looser, i answered that i would if it was live because i could go play a cash game and make it back, and that online i would not because i could multitable.

please don't assume that making this call would mean i'm reckless the whole tournament, as my play in live tourneys is deff not terrible.

btw, thank you for the numbers, but i don't think someone is in with 22+ here, from any position.

[NoahSD]

My computer almost exploded, so I never finished it, but your equity against the ranges you gave looks to be about 22%. So, yeah, call.

Don't worry about stuff like lasting longer or playing for first or any other cute slogans--or [censored] like what the average stack is and who's CL and who can bust who, etc. As long as the payout structure isn't totally flat, just do whatever gets you the most chips on average.

BTW, just get on AIM at some point and I'll teach you to play poker good.

[reecelights]

[ QUOTE ]

btw, thank you for the numbers, but i don't think someone is in with 22+ here, from any position.

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If you would call with 76s, why wouldn't someone else call behind you with 22 hoping to flop a set, and thinking "hey I can have 5x the starting stack?"

[TakenItEasy]

If you Know you are neutral EV and you are a better player and lets just say this is an online MTT sit-n-go where there is always another one ready to go than yes.

1: Chips are worth more in your hands than the average player.
2: You are increasing your hourly rate since you will either be out with little time investment or your time in the tournament with a 4x/5x stack will have a higher earning potential.

In your example at a casino it depends on if your earning potential is better in the tournament or in a cash game.

However you cannot know you are neutral EV here. You are neutral at best. I would think 2nd All-in is probably AA/KK and if 3rd or 4th all-in is employing your same strategy with middle suited connectors you are -EV. You are assuming everyone is sharing cards at the top when it seems unlikely for 4-5 players to be doing so.

[reecelights]

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2: You are increasing your hourly rate since you will either be out with little time investment or your time in the tournament with a 4x/5x stack will have a higher earning potential.

In your example at a casino it depends on if your earning potential is better in the tournament or in a cash game.


[/ QUOTE ]

You did clarify point number two here, but losing $100 in 2 minutes is a WORSE hourly rate than losing $100 in an hour. Your hourly rate in cash games remains the same, you just theoretically free up more time to play that cash game, but you are looking at a single day not long term. By your logic, if you are guaranteed to not make any money and always lose in a tournament and to counteract that you should get to the cash game as fast as possible, then you shouldn't play the tournament at all.

[oe39]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

btw, thank you for the numbers, but i don't think someone is in with 22+ here, from any position.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you would call with 76s, why wouldn't someone else call behind you with 22 hoping to flop a set, and thinking "hey I can have 5x the starting stack?"

[/ QUOTE ]

math?