Do I fire the 3rd barrel here? (NLCASH)

[Svarog]

Live 1/2 NL home game with 6 players, but the hand in question becomes a heads up situation.

Hero's stack size: about $250
Hero's table image: Has been catching a lot of cards and winning without showdown, so probably has a loose table image.

Villains stack size: about $250
Villain image: solid, but somewhat loose older player who has been known to hang onto hands AK, JJ+ regardless of the flop.

Dealt to Hero on button: Ad Jh

Folds around to to Hero on button, who raises to $7. Villain (on SB) raises to $14. BB folds.

Read: Based on earlier observations, I assume he is on 99+ - AJ+.

I call.

Flop: Qd 6s 8s

Villain bets $7. Read: I think he missed the flop, because I doubt he would put in such a weak bet otherwise on a draw-heavy board.

Hero raises to $30. Villain Calls.

Turn: 5c
Villain checks, hero bets $40, Villain calls instantly.

River: 10c

Villain checks. Hero...?

[ChicagoRy]

When you say "hang onto hands AK, JJ+ regardless of the flop" does that mean he calls big river bets? Medium river bets?

If his range is AJ+ 99+ then I think it's very tough to fire big here and be profitable.

If he's dropping 99, TT, AK, AJ to a big bet here then I'd obviously bet, but it seems very read dependent here.

You mentioned that he would bet higher on a draw heavy board, but wouldn't you do the same on the turn? Why bet 40 on the turn if it's so draw heavy and you want to rep the queen?

Could he have 88 here?
If he's a good but not great player I'd put a lot of weight into JJ, TT, 99 hands, putting out a feeler bet on the flop (albeit weak) and then insta calling the turn when he realizes you don't have the queen because you'd want to bet higher to protect draws.

[Svarog]

[ QUOTE ]
When you say "hang onto hands AK, JJ+ regardless of the flop" does that mean he calls big river bets? Medium river bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

During a previous hand, he was holding AK and check-called a large pot sized bet from an aggressive player on a dry flop. When a king turned, he bet, and was put all in (for 2x pot) by the aggressive player. He called and lost to KK. That's the closest situation I can compare to.

[ QUOTE ]

You mentioned that he would bet higher on a draw heavy board, but wouldn't you do the same on the turn? Why bet 40 on the turn if it's so draw heavy and you want to rep the queen?


[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps I made a mistake by not betting more here. Since I put him on a weak hand, I figured that $40 into a $90 pot would be sufficient to represent a hand like KQ -- one that is not super-confident, but wants to bet strongly enough so that 4-flushes don't draw for free.

Should I have bet more on the turn? Perhaps... but if he was determined to see all 5 cards, he would have called, and left me without much leverage on the river.

[Wayneo]

I think he maybe has a hand such as QJ or KQ, which he's looking likely to call down. I'd give up river. But because you said about the prior information, I don't mind keeping the turn a bit cheaper, and then if you do decide to fire 3rd barrel on the end based on your read you have bigger amunition, and a story that makes a bit more sense.

[Svarog]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he maybe has a hand such as QJ or KQ, which he's looking likely to call down. I'd give up river. But because you said about the prior information, I don't mind keeping the turn a bit cheaper, and then if you do decide to fire 3rd barrel on the end based on your read you have bigger amunition, and a story that makes a bit more sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not concerned about KQ or QJ for two reasons:
- he would not reraise preflop from SB with these hands.
- he would bet more strongly after catching top pair on the flop.

I am mostly putting him on JJ (35%), 99-TT (30%), or AK(35%).

If I fired a bet of $60, I think he would probably call with 99-JJ, and probably fold AK.

Firing a bet of more than $60 would probably make it look MORE like a bluff.

So if I were to bet $60, I figured I had about a 1/3 chance of winning $170 (and a 2/3 chance of losing another $60).

Not too good. So I checked, and villain turned over....

[ChicagoRy]

AK is my guess.

According to what you say about that past hand he's likely not extremely tricky here and I can't see him not raising and just calling with too much here.

The one thing that would be bad about this is the guy calls w AK type hands, you've seen that, you've got a rather loose image you say so far, those combined make this a check behind for sure.

[Svarog]

Indeed... Villain turned over AK and scooped the huge pot as Hero looked on, fighting back the urge to vomit.