100NL: I have a set and I think he has aces

[1p0kerboy]

Villian is 11/7/3. I'm planning to check/push the flop but he ruined it by not betting.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 ($74)
MP3 ($100)
CO ($145.80)
Button ($98.50)
SB ($19)
BB ($100)
UTG ($180.30)
UTG+1 ($134.50)
NIT ($94.75)

Preflop: NIT is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">NIT raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $14</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, NIT calls $10.

Flop: ($29.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
NIT checks, MP3 checks.

Turn: ($29.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">NIT bets $15</font>, MP3 calls $15.

River: ($59.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
NIT checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $29</font>, NIT calls $29.

Final Pot: $117.50

[bottomset]

preflop is likely -EV, he has position and is very tight himself, and if he knows you are as tight as you are, his range is QQ+ maybe AK, and its too short to setmine

river you prob only beat AK, sucky spot

[D.L.M.]

poker boy, im glad you are trying to get creative. but this isnt a hand you want to slow play given the situation. you need to lead this flop.
yes hes likely to bet, but hes also just as likely to call.
the only hand that would benifit more from a cr than a lead is if he has qq, and even then he prob wont bet. so if you have a choice between leading and almost surely gettin a call, and check raising, id lead. i like to cr with good hands in very specific snerios when i want my villiann to bluff or make and obvious value bet that he would make.

[1p0kerboy]

[ QUOTE ]
the only hand that would benifit more from a cr than a lead is if he has qq

[/ QUOTE ]

What about aces, which is what I think he has.

[D.L.M.]

if he has aces and he knows you called his reraise, he may get skiddish knowing that your play is comensurate with jj qq kk(given how nitty you are) so he knows theres a good chance that you may have trips. so hes gonna see what you do on the turn, and control the pot, he knows that more than half your range just got a nice flop and hes not happy about having aa right now. id probably check the flop if im him too, to add some deception, and maybe make a puss bets on the turn if checked to(to get your qq to pay me somthing)


so when trying to get tricky, you have to not only put him on a hand, but also put yourself on a hand through his eyes.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the only hand that would benifit more from a cr than a lead is if he has qq

[/ QUOTE ]

What about aces, which is what I think he has.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm checking AA behind on the flop here against you

[1p0kerboy]

Yeah I should have led flop here.

Doh!