Fun with Hand Reading ($50 husng)

Nichomacheo · #1 03-02-2007, 02:19 AM

This is about the tenth hand of the match. I've been fairly aggressive in the SB, tighter in the BB. Then this hand comes up:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t1560)
Hero (t1440)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Button raises to t60, Hero raises to t200, Button calls t140.

Flop: (t400) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t200, Button calls t200.

Turn: (t800) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t340, Button raises to t1160, Hero says WTF

Thoughts on all streets? What does Villian have? Do you call or fold?

Nichomacheo

Dromar · #2 03-02-2007, 08:24 AM

I'm thinking AK. How aggressive has he been in the SB?

AK, AQ, AJ, AT, AsXs, KT, QJ, maybe JJ, are all possibilities here. I honestly don't think he's bluffing very much here, since he's chosen to commit so many chips and give you so much overlay when he pushed. You've got 10% equity against that range. I'd drop it unless I have reason to believe he might be bluffing, or he's pretty loose raising and calling reraises on the button. Then I rethink, and might still end up folding.

donkeykong2 · #3 03-02-2007, 10:07 AM

maybe some bluffing flush draw or even some weak ace, very difficult to say without knowing the player. seems like he decided to float you maybe thinking you have a pocket pair... well pretty much guessing here without any read, i think i would fold here. u called and he showed some bs? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Nichomacheo · #4 03-02-2007, 11:00 AM

Most players will repop preflop with AK. A second option would be for him to push on the flop with two overcards, a gutshot, and some combined fold equity.

I think QJ, AQ raise the flop.

If he has AJ and is calling the flop hoping to hit an ace or a jack on the turn, then wouldnt he also be the type of player to do this with some random flush draw?

Similar with AT, AsXs.

I had a tough time putting him on a hand here. I very much doubt he is floating the flop. It's too draw heavy for it to work out. I could easily put him on some kind of draw, making floating very dangerous.

Goldmund · #5 03-02-2007, 11:08 AM

Looks like you're behind to me. I think he's gonna show you Ax of spades or AT/AJ. I would make a slightly bigger turnbet, say 450, to make a little more sure a raise is not a reaction to a bet amount that might be perceived as on the weakish side.

Now should you call or fold with half your stack already in the middle? Assuming you're behind, you have as definite outs two Q's and four tens and three K's as possible outs. But then again Villain might be holding one your 'outs'in his hand and he could also be drawing to a flush w Ax of spades, reducing your chances to draw out.

On average I would say you have 5-6 outs if you're behind. But could you be ahead at this point? I think that's pretty unlikely, but a (remote) possibility nonetheless. The only hand I see you beating is something like K6 of spades, but the betting sequence makes that rather unlikely. Could he be bluffing with air? Maybe 5% of the time max.

Concluding: You probably need to hit one of 5 or 6 outs like 85% of the time for half your stack and getting about 3 to 1. All in all that makes this a fold for me, although I suspect you were on tilt, called and were pleasantly surprised. Goldmund

Nichomacheo · #6 03-02-2007, 11:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like you're behind to me. I think he's gonna show you Ax of spades or AT/AJ. I would make a slightly bigger turnbet, say 450, to make a little more sure a raise is not a reaction to a bet amount that might be perceived as on the weakish side.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never thought about it like this. The problem is if I bet 450, what hands am I doing that with? I'm not so sure I'd bet that much with two pair here.

[ QUOTE ]
Concluding: You probably need to hit one of 5 or 6 outs like 85% of the time for half your stack and getting about 3 to 1. All in all that makes this a fold for me, although I suspect you were on tilt, called and were pleasantly surprised.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't on tilt actually. Results later...

Goldmund · #7 03-02-2007, 11:30 AM

You're betting 340 into a pot of 800 on a board that is severely draw infested. If I bet I would definitely bet more than half the pot myself here, 450-500, and try to check it down on the River. An opponent betting 40% of the pot on this kind of board smells weakish I think and invites some of the more agro-laggie'r types to start barking at you. Goldmund

Goldmund

CTKid · #8 03-02-2007, 03:00 PM

looks like KJ/QT or 6sXs to me I'd call and win.

Nichomacheo · #9 03-02-2007, 03:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
looks like KJ/QT or 6sXs to me I'd call and win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on what?

CTKid · #10 03-02-2007, 03:36 PM

No pf push/4bet: AK unlikely
No flop raise on draw heavy board: AQ, QJ unlikely
called 3 bet pre flop: Q6/J6 unlikely

Remaining likely hands: AJ, QT, KJ, 6sXs. You're ahead of this range, so you should call. I ruled out AJ in above post bcs you said you were surprised by what he showed you.