100NL: TPGK

dirtysanchez · #1 03-01-2007, 07:35 AM

Villain is 70/15, but only 33 hands. my table is image is really [censored] bad (im running 25/17 at this table over 125 hands) to the point that the entire table has expressed to every newcomer what a donkey i am (allin w/ draws, etc.). i decide to take the passive route here b/c i think due to my image guys like this will 3-bet the flop wide enough that i will often fold the best hand, with the plan to raise a lot of safe rivers, which this one isnt. IMO though by playing it like this to this point ive forced myself to call here, thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($121.65)
BB ($136.55)
UTG ($80.80)
UTG+1 ($177.90)
MP1 ($97)
MP2 ($98.90)
Hero ($126)
CO ($96.10)
Button ($89.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5, 4 folds, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($11.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($21.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero calls $10.

River: ($41.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $33, Hero calls $33.

Final Pot: $107.50

Jurrr · #2 03-01-2007, 07:58 AM

Tricky spot. Villains pattern of small-small-big is really really consistent with the front-door FD coming in. I think raising the turn may be better here - do you really think they are ballzy enough to repop you with a weak ace or air here?

River is really tough. What's villains AF? I'm leaning towards a fold.

dirtysanchez · #3 03-01-2007, 08:22 AM

AF isnt really close to accurate over 33 hands. i guess we just need to decide if he can bet flop and turn with draws here, and if so is that more or less likely than AX/gutshots, pps/air here. he never donk-bets a set IMO.

jetsetboy · #4 03-01-2007, 09:30 AM

Hum, weak ben on flop and turn then a strong bet on the river, he either is bluffing or have made his hand.

Even if you think your image is terrible I believe you should raise that flop. That's a weak donk bet on a drawy board when you have TPMK. Just raise to something like $30. If vilain has a brain he will not 3betAI light against a maniac that is PSRing his donk bet on a A-high flop. If he pushes you can be sure he has AK/set/combo draw and can safely fold.

dirtysanchez · #5 03-01-2007, 09:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hum, weak ben on flop and turn then a strong bet on the river, he either is bluffing or have made his hand.

Even if you think your image is terrible I believe you should raise that flop. That's a weak donk bet on a drawy board when you have TPMK. Just raise to something like $30. If vilain has a brain he will not 3betAI light against a maniac that is PSRing his donk bet on a A-high flop. If he pushes you can be sure he has AK/set/combo draw and can safely fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree i should have raised the flop bet, but as played what are we doing. i think at the time i thought the flop donk was much closer to pot

jetsetboy · #6 03-01-2007, 09:47 AM

If he is a regular call, that's good for your image and the information is really valuable (does he play NFD TPWK like this). But IMHO it's clearly Ev- to call here. He either has a flush or AIR.