limit draw - bluff time

[stripsqueez]

5/10 game - i open riase 1010 on the button and the decent aggro SB 3 bets and the goosey BB calls - SB draws 3 - BB draws 1 - i draw 3 unhelpful cards

check check ?

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Tom Bayes]

Hmmmmmm. Interesting.

It seems the SB knows that you will open-raise fairly light and was trying to isolate you with a big pair (probably AA or KK) that he thinks is the best hand. If he thinks you are capable of stealing from the button, he probably also thinks you are capable of trying to steal the pot post-draw and might be willing to make a crying call even if he failed to improve. But maybe he knows you know this and figures you won't bet with a marginal pair unless you improved? How many levels of thinking will this player go with you?

What is the BB doing? I'm not quite sure of what "goosey" means. If this player will call any number of bets with a come hand, then his check probably indicates that he missed. But maybe this is one of those players that you have to pry 3322x from their cold dead hands, because they have "two pair" and "two pair" is great and they will not be bet off of "two pair" because they cannot be bluffed.

So, it depends (the classic cop-out answer). Even though I probably would have checked like a little girl if this had been me, you probably should bet unless you know the BB only takes this line with a weak two-pair or better hand that he will never release. We've got 9 small bets in the pot already-hopefully your bluff will work often enough to be +EV.

[TomTom]

Note first I play 5CD at low pot limits where I make money by 3 betting opening pots, and jamming post flop when I draw out.

SB Check, BB check, hero check or bet?

Basically you’re on a blind steal here. With BB in too (goosey = loosie goosie) you have good odds to call the 1 bet.

Post draw you have everyone defined. Myy read is that SB has a big broadway pair, and BB has a straight or flush draw (maybe 2 short pairs). Maybe they drew, maybe not. How have you been playing? Have you gone to SD with unimproved pairs here and bet them? SB probably knows if you have.

My feeling is you’re behind one or maybe both of them, but they have weak hands they might release for a bet. Will cost you 1 BB to win 4.5, decent odds. A raise means you’re toast so release after a short tank.

So with a strong image you can bet, but I don’t hate a check here either.

[Murakawa]

Basically what Tom Bayes said, but if the BB is so loosey goosey he might call if he hits a high pair to his flush draw or if he has like 6677x. I think it depends on BB's postdraw calling standards, and if either of these guys are smart they are smart enough to know that a bet in position doesn't mean as much as OOP, and that this is a decent sized pot so if they suspect you may be bluffing sometimes THEY are getting +EV to call you pretty often.

If BB is loose you're going to be making money off his other times, and I think you're just unlucky that your steal didn't work.

(oh yah, and if SB is 3 - betting with aces he may be smart enough to call down knowing he's invested a lot. He may be planning to check call one bet all along. I just have a bad feeling about this hand, but I could be wrong)

[mindflayer]

I rarely comment, but you are in the perfect squeeze play position. You cannot win unless you bet (SB has you beat) so your calculation should be what % of hands does BB have two pairs as opposed to a draw.
If BB just sat down, I would check.
If he had called a few raises before and shown a busted draw I would lean to betting.

[bigpooch]

Good point.

It's risking $10 to win $43, so it's probably worth taking
the risk. You only need to win uncontested about 10/53 or
18.9% of the time to make the bet at least break even.

Let's say the SB will call with AAK or better (he may muck
all his aces because he is "squeezed"), so he'll make that
hand or better less than 48% of the time. If he should
fold, you only have to get by the BB, so he would have to
fold at least about 18.9/52 or 36.3% of the time for the bet
to have positive expectation.

Even if the BB only played flush draws (there are 111540 of
them, and many of them may have a big pair), he will have a
busted flush very often compared to when he has two pairs.
Because of his failure to bet, he almost certainly doesn't
have aces up or kings up and as there are only 123552 two
pair hands to begin with, you can see that the BB will have
a busted draw more than 37% of the time, making a bet very
likely to be +EV.

And here, I am assuming the SB autochecks (which isn't going
to be the case always) and he didn't start with a king in
his hand and the BB ONLY plays flush draws (he could also be
playing straight draws if he is really bad).

[stripsqueez]

yeah so i bet and the SB called with AA and the BB folded

i worry that where there is ink there is squid - the reason for the SB to call is the same reason why its reasonable to bet

i wasnt too concerned about losing this $10 because it seemed i could use the impression created for the SB to advantage - i think my main problem in positions such as these is that as the SB i see ink when there is no squid too much

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Big Limpin]

that squid and ink analogy is spot on, and it pretty much answers your OP. what makes this attractive to squeeze is also why you will be called way too often, and the first bet isnt so attractive anymore. i think you are best to rap the table, and say "nh, AA goot" the tiebreaker is that while BB sure looks like he's missed a draw, its not 100%.

If your are successful bluffing the SB, then the pot might be too big for BB to resist looking you up with his
-4flush that turned into QQ
-small 2pr that he was scared to bet himself
-Legit flush/str that he is checkraising (this seems longshot with agressor being SB, but still...)

Yeha, i think i prefer not attempting this bluff, but perhaps against very tight opponents it is worth it?

[stripsqueez]

i'm happy to bluff again in this spot

if you take any scenario where someone has described there hand pre-draw as 1 big pair that has raised (this applies to good aggressive opponents as they are the ones who will do this most commonly) and then checks into another 3 card buyer post draw - as last to act you want to be getting called when you do improve

that said most guys i would describe as good and aggressive err on the side of calling a post draw bet if they have raised pre-draw in such a spot because to do otherwise looks horribly weak - i am happy to play it that way with such players but i have to bluff sometimes because a good player will adjust quickly if i dont

stripsqueez - chickenhawk