QQ near satalite bubble

[mrpinkmcpink]

$100+R online qualifier to live event. There are 7 packages (worth $2750) and 7th gets $1650.

We're down to the last 15 players. I'm 4th with about 35k. Average is about 22k. I'd come back from a small stack by stealing a lot of blinds. The table is tight. No one seems to be fighting back.

Blinds are 800-1600. I open in early position to 4k with QQ (my standard raise has been a little less than 3 times the bigblind). The CO goes all-in for 30k.

Call or fold?

[Mingdu]

You see this villian play any hands before?

I'd fold readless

[Bond18]

Fold.

[Shes92]

Any reads on villain?

Without reads I think I call here. There are only two hands you are worried about and as you have been stealing a lot recently maybe the villains range is a bit wider than normal. He may do this with AQ+, TT+ which you are well ahead of.

I know you said youd been stealing a lot recently but had you been raising from early pos at all in last few orbits?

Oops just thinking that this is a sat so youre not trying for first place ... hmmmmmm ....... makes it borderline but I still think Im calling

[mrpinkmcpink]

I dont have any specifics on villain, just that the table's been pretty tight. I'd been raising from all positions, with no show downs (and virtually no flops), but I hadn't been completely over-dooing it - maybe twice per orbit.

[Bond18]

shes92, your overestimating villains range. Because this is a satellite and their pretty close to package i think villains range is basically

JJ+ and AK. Even if we know he has AK it'd be awful to call. This is a fold for our stack, keep playing small ball with a table thats apparantly let u run over it.

[mrpinkmcpink]

[ QUOTE ]
shes92, your overestimating villains range. Because this is a satellite and their pretty close to package i think villains range is basically

JJ+ and AK. Even if we know he has AK it'd be awful to call. This is a fold for our stack, keep playing small ball with a table thats apparantly let u run over it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I kind of forgot that actaully if he were to show me AK, I should still fold. And with the table playing as it was I stood a good chance of making it as things were.

Actually I called. He had AK and hit a King on the river = gutted

[starchyy]

I like the fold here. This is not a situation where you would like to be in a race, especially with your above average chip stack.

[holdemft]

I fold. If this were an MTT I would have called. Sat requires different strategy. Pass up on this there's too much Variance, and keep pounding the table for the blinds.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. If this were an MTT I would have called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Your call is +cEV but -$EV. You do not want to be flipping with AK at this point in the sat and the 16 ways that he is a 56/44 dog is where most of your chip equity comes from in this hand