NL50 6max: playing back at a steal with AJo gets me in a tough spot

[Smilin']

Villain is something like 20/20/2 over ~40 hands at this point, and most of that aggression seems to come from late position (we weren't always 4-handed). I think, though I can't remember for sure, that he took a float-looking line in a previous hand vs. someone else. The hand immediately before this he raised the Button, SB called, I reraised, and they both folded. So I'm reraising from the blinds twice in a row here.

First off, do you like the reraise preflop? I can see an argument that I should just let it go, given that he's less likely to give me credit twice in a row. Plus I ca end up in this kind of ugly spot. OTOH, I figure to be well ahead of his range.

Secondly, as played preflop, what's my line on the turn? Villain took a while before calling on the flop, which may have been a show. I can see merits to check/fold, check/call, bet/fold, and bet/call. I think it's very possible that checking will induce a bluff, but if I call I make an even tougher river decision for myself. I can also block bet around 1/2 pot or a little more; that gets me pretty close to pot-committed, but in that case if he raises can I fold safely knowing that I'm beat?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $52.65
Button: $18.35
Hero: $69.90
BB: $50

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $6.25</font>, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($13, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $8.25</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($29.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero?</font>

[TheRenaissance]

Preflop is ok IMO.
Villain seems decent, so I would say his range is something like 66+/AK.
Maybe he plays the odd sc as well.
I assume he'd raise flop w AK hearts, maybe with any flushdraw.
He could be slowplaying a set/AA, but IMO this is 55, 66, 88-TT a lot.
Maybe QQ.
Check call turn.

[thac]

lol... UTG "steal" .. just fold preflop. As played, I don't know because any bet you make commits you to the hand and if you check you basically need to give up the hand.. You probably have to get allin here.. or check/fold.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
lol... UTG "steal" .. just fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol reading comprehension.
UTG = CO.
Villain has a VERY wide range here if we trust the stats.
(limited sample size, but for the sake of argument let's assume they are fairly accurate)

[Smilin']

[ QUOTE ]
Check call turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

And then river plan?

[ QUOTE ]
lol... UTG "steal"

[/ QUOTE ]

We're 4-handed, so he's really in CO. I do think I'm well ahead of his raising range, don't you? But that may not be enough to reraise or even call.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check call turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

And then river plan?

[ QUOTE ]
lol... UTG "steal"

[/ QUOTE ]

We're 4-handed, so he's really in CO. I do think I'm well ahead of his raising range, don't you? But that may not be enough to reraise or even call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok fine, I thought I counted 5 players, my bad, but still, is he gonna call your reraise with AT? You can flat call here and look to win a smallish pot, otherwise you're gonna end up in situations like this.

[jonyy6788]

This is why I lost 19BI's at NL50 is 3 days....it's the proper play to make this re-raise preflop, but the TAGs playing NL50 are there for a reason, many of them don't fold. This creates huge problems postflop. I don't think there's much you can do here in this spot.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check call turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

And then river plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most decent villains will check behind most any river with an unimproved pocket pair here.
In fact, many would do so on the turn as well - especially with a flush draw.
On the other hand he might want to protect against another heart or broadway.
Hmmm.
I would call a small turn bet, &lt;/= 15.
Check fold any bigger.
If he bets both turn and river you are beat.

[J. Stew]

for real rr is standard for me against 20/20 unless he goes ape shttt in rr'ed pots.

i kinda think he's floating here, your flop bet is less than 2/3 pot so maybe he's tagging along and'll fold to a turn bet, either that or he's bout to raise you. i would just fire a little more than half the pot and check/fold the river - he'll probably check some hands that you beat behind on the river and bet hands that beat you so . . .

[barryc83]

I'd fold pf after 3betting the hand before bc people def think youre playing back at them and its not like youre giving up a bunch of value by folding AJo OOP IMO. Playing a marginal hand OOP in a RR pot against someone who is basically unknown is not fun bc we get in a spot like this a lot.

Personally, I like a CRAI here better than just betting out. Yes we dont want to see another heart hit if it checks through, but assuming this guys not a total idiot, he's not gonna call a turn bet w/ a hand you beat. I'd let him bet his mid pp or bluff at it putting you on AK. I've seen hands like QJ/JT here too much (from people I thought were good) to just c/f this. I'd CRAI.

EDIT: 40 hands is not a big enough sample to base any decisions off IMO.