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#1
02-24-2007, 02:15 AM
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Which is more deadly?
Driving 150 miles in one daytime trip with 2 passengers in the car (3 total people) which has a nail in one of the tires (just a slow leak, no noticeable difference in driving @ 70mph), OR driving drunk (say... .12-.15 BAC) alone for 20 miles at 2am on similar highway.
If done 1,000,000 times each, which would yield more deaths? 
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#2
02-24-2007, 02:42 AM
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Re: Which is more deadly?
[ QUOTE ]
Driving 150 miles in one daytime trip with 2 passengers in the car (3 total people) which has a nail in one of the tires (just a slow leak, no noticeable difference in driving @ 70mph), OR driving drunk (say... .12-.15 BAC) alone for 20 miles at 2am on similar highway. If done 1,000,000 times each, which would yield more deaths? [/ QUOTE ] The first one. I do not think that driving drunk makes you 22.5x more likely to die in a car accident, but I could be wrong.
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#4
02-24-2007, 07:25 AM
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Re: Which is more deadly?
Definitely case A. If you do have a blowout, the chances of an accident are extremely high, and in Case B, they're really not. I could be wrong on this, but I think the majority of drunk driving accidents occur when the driver has a BAC of over .15 and with little traffic, it should be pretty difficult for a mildly drunk driver to have an accident.
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#5
02-24-2007, 11:31 AM
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Re: Which is more deadly?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Driving 150 miles in one daytime trip with 2 passengers in the car (3 total people) which has a nail in one of the tires (just a slow leak, no noticeable difference in driving @ 70mph), OR driving drunk (say... .12-.15 BAC) alone for 20 miles at 2am on similar highway. If done 1,000,000 times each, which would yield more deaths? [/ QUOTE ] The first one. I do not think that driving drunk makes you 22.5x more likely to die in a car accident, but I could be wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Good breakdown. Driving distance = 7.5 times more and people = 3 times more. 7.5x3= 22.5. This does leave out the fact that in scenario A it is daytime and there would be more drivers around you than at 2am, but we can't accurately quantify that. I just thought it was funny b/c I just made this trip last week (after patching my nail-infested tire), and my buddy asked me twice before we left if I fixed the tire (which I did). He seemed very concerned about our safety, but this guy admittedly has a drinking problem and has drivin home drunk on several occassions, doing minor damage to his car on multiple occassions. I guess he was correct in thinking the nail is more dangerous than the brew. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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#6
02-24-2007, 12:03 PM
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Re: Which is more deadly?
[ QUOTE ]
This does leave out the fact that in scenario A it is daytime and there would be more drivers around you than at 2am, but we can't accurately quantify that. [/ QUOTE ] Combing the fact that more people are likely to die in the crash with the increased likelihood of a crash itself, I think this will at least double the figure to 45. Even without the nail, that might make A correct. The difference is that driving drunk is much easier to avoid. Moreover, I think the alcohol is more dangerous than the nail. The other factors are circumstantial - they should be identical between the two situations in order for an accurate evaluation of which (nail or drink) is worse. Moreover, if he drives drunk on a regular basis, the 45 will quickly drop anyhow. Though A is the correct answer in the OP, your friend is still being irrational (and probably overestimating his ability to "handle" being drunk - especially at such high BACs).
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#7
02-24-2007, 03:25 PM
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Re: Which is more deadly?
[ QUOTE ]
Driving distance = 7.5 times more and people = 3 times more. 7.5x3= 22.5. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think the math is nearly that simple. Since the accident is more likely to happen getting on or off the highway than it is driving on the highway 7.5x is probably too high and if you include people in other vehicles 3x is probably too high. Even if you just include you and the passengers 3x may be too high. Tough to quantify since the scenarios are completely different with so many factors.
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#8
02-24-2007, 07:19 PM
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Re: Which is more deadly?
[ QUOTE ]
If done 1,000,000 times each, which would yield more deaths? [/ QUOTE ] I'd get pretty annoyed after making this trip about 200 times...are we to include the potential for homicides and suicides?
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#9
02-24-2007, 11:02 PM
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Re: Which is more deadly?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If done 1,000,000 times each, which would yield more deaths? [/ QUOTE ] I'd get pretty annoyed after making this trip about 200 times...are we to include the potential for homicides and suicides? [/ QUOTE ] lol fair enough
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#10
02-24-2007, 11:48 PM
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Re: Which is more deadly?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If done 1,000,000 times each, which would yield more deaths? [/ QUOTE ] I'd get pretty annoyed after making this trip about 200 times...are we to include the potential for homicides and suicides? [/ QUOTE ] lol fair enough [/ QUOTE ] Out of a millions times no matter the deaths, the Drunk Driver would serve more prison time.
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